Oh what a treat ... Another Game 7

Here is a little game day treat for you ... the following is a little why the Aeros will/won't beat the Admirals and advance to the Western Conference Finals. Heather and I worked on this today, previewing the biggest game of the season at the Bradley Center.

First, we'll start with the bad news. If you stop reading after this one, it's your own fault.

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There is just no way the Aeros are going to win the game tonight.

Aeros fans have been tortured over the years. Game 6s have been an absolute terror to the team and its fans since pretty much Day one. And I mean tortured in the sense that Game 7s are so nerve/gut-wrenching as a fan. On one hand, you're glad your team is still alive. But ... one loss and you’re done.

And this year is especially bad; this isn't a team that made a nice playoff run -- this is a team, which if it wins tonight, will be a favorite (the highest seed left) to win the Calder Cup.

Before the Aeros really got things going as a franchise, they never played a meaningful Game 6. In 1999 - the year the team won its first championship - the Aeros lost two Game 6s only to recover and win two Game 7s.

Since then, they have won just about every Game 7 possible, save for one (at home against Manitoba) in the last IHL years when they blew a 3-1 series lead and lost the last two games at Compaq Center.

Remember the other night when the Aeros UNBELIEVABLE streak of playoff OT wins came to an end? Until that 5-4 OT loss, the Aeros had won 11 straight postseason OT games. No team had ever done that in the AHL, and I am still waiting to hear back if any NHL team can make the same claim.

Well, all good things come to an end eventually, and one of the reasons the Aeros won't win tonight has a lot to do with that. Since joining the AHL, the Aeros are 4-0 – all on the road – in Game 7’s. Only the Maine Mariners (5-0) have a better Game 7 record in AHL history. Milwaukee, however, is 2-3 in Calder Cup Playoff Game 7’s, their season ending in a seventh game in both 2009 and 2010.

Both trends reverse tonight, and the Admirals live to face the Hamilton Bulldogs.

Another reason the Aeros won't win tonight is Matt Hackett. I talked to several people who were in the building for Game 6. Their take? Hackett just wasn't good enough to win. The Aeros got back in the game despite Hackett, who got burned with the Aeros just five minutes away from much-needed rest.

I know he is a rookie, and I have no doubt he deserves all the credit for helping the team to where they are now. But, he is just not stopping a high enough percentage of pucks to steal a win. And you need that "steal-ability" from your netminder in Game 7s.

In case you have not been paying attention, the Admirals just got back three key ingredients for their Calder Cup run. Eliminated in Nashville last night, Lane Lambert now has Blake Geoffrion, Matt Halischuk, and defenseman Jonathon Blum at his disposal. Fans, if you thought the Admirals were tough before now, wait till they get some of those ATOs out of the lineup.

4-2, Milwaukee. Season over.

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There is just no way the Aeros are going to lose this game tonight.

As much as the Aeros tell themselves the pressure's on Milwaukee, I honestly believe the Aeros have given us and themselves plenty of reason to expect a win tonight.

The Aeros have the upper hand in every way, except in goal, and that's been the difference in this series. Generally speaking, the odd soft/flukey goal by Hackett and the odd impossible save by Smith is the only reason this series wasn't over several days ago.

Milwaukee's biggest strength is that they are stingy, but the Aeros have proven that they can still put a ridiculous number of shots on Jeremy Smith.

I think we've beat to death the fact that Hackett has to have a good game for the Aeros to win. I think we've also seen that he has a veteran's ability to bounce back from disappointing games, which I'd say the last one was a bit.

In fact, I think a little sting from losing the last game is good for the whole team. Unlike Milwaukee, the Aeros have lost two games in a row only once since mid-March. To me, that's a sign of great resilience.

It tells me that they can look at a loss, understand why it happened, and come out ready, willing, and able to redeem it the next game.

Tonight's game is all about the Aeros being focused and not getting sucked into Milwaukee's web of shenanigans meant to incite frustration and mistakes. We know they are capable of doing so.

And with an undoubtedly tired Jeremy Smith, and a tired Ads defense, I think pucks will go in a little easier tonight.

I will concede that the Ads getting defenseman Blum, and forwards Geoffrion and Halischuk back tonight will boost their offensive depth, but these guys are coming off a tough loss last night in Nashville, traveling today, and haven't played with the team in who knows how long.

So their timing and communication and chemistry will be off and the Aeros likely have an opportunity to capitalize on any mistakes that may result from that.

The Aeros have everything going for them tonight and I think the urgency will be there from the start to wear the defense and Smith down early. And that's how the Aeros are going to win.

4-2 Houston, Bring on Hamilton.