Game Day - Aeros at OKC Barons

Tonight, the Aeros will get their first look at the Oklahoma City Barons. Not quite David vs. Goliath as the Aeros are very, very talented, too, but really, on paper the Barons are ridiculous. They have Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, they have Justin Schutlz, and they have ... who cares who else they have, as in most of the studs they had last year ...

They are loaded, and tonight the Aeros will get their first of many cracks at this AHL star-studded lineup. I am not for certain just how many of these guys will end up in Edmonton when the lockout is over, but the Aeros will play them a lot early in the season.

Call it dumb luck, but as an AHL fan, I am glad we'll get a chance to see what the Aeros can do against these guys. I just wish more of these games were at Toyota Center. Three of the Barons' next four home games are against the Aeros, and they won't make their first visit to Houston until late November.

I can only guess at the goaltending matchup based on trends. Olivier Roy looks to get the call for the Barons, as coach Todd Nelson has rotated he and Yann Danis. It's Roy's turn tonight. And the Aeros will probably counter with Matt Hackett. But, with two games this weekend, both goalies should play. Darcy Kuemper won his only start on the road at Texas last week, so maybe Torchetti alternates the two again that way.

We'll know for sure later tonight.

Here are some notes from the Aeros Press Office:

• The first three meetings of the season series are at the Cox Convention Center in downtown OKC. 
• Friday’s game marks the first meeting since April 24, when the Barons finished off a first-round playoff series win over the Aeros. 
• Oklahoma City is coming off a 4-3 win at home over Lake Erie on Wednesday night.
• Aeros Center Mikael Granlund leads Houston in scoring with seven points through the first five games of the season.
• Granlund is in the top 20 of the AHL for points and top five for assists. 
• Defenseman Marco Scandella leads all Aeros with six assists, tying him for second in the league.
• Right wing Jason Zucker is third on the team in scoring with two goals and three assists for five points in four games.
• Defenseman Brian Connelly sits fourth on the Aeros roster with four points off a goal and three assists. 
• Right wing Nick Palmieri leads the team with three goals in five games. 
• The Barons rank 15th in the AHL on the power play converting five out of 24 chances (20.8%). 
• As far the penalty kill goes, Oklahoma City sits 23 out of 30 teams, stopping 19 of 26 attempts. 
• The Barons rank 26th out of 30 teams in penalty minutes, averaging just 13 minutes a game. 
• Oklahoma City is averaging 3.20 goals per game, while allowing 2.80 goals per game.

Game Day; Aeros vs. Texas - 7:05 p.m. at Toyota Center

Tonight the Aeros play Game No. 3 in their 19th campaign, 12th since joining the American Hockey League back in 2001.

The Aeros have had a full week's practice since dropping their first two games of the season, and they'll get their first crack at Texas since losing to that squad back in the preseason. For starters, the Aeros will employ their "A" team against the Stars this time.

Click here for a take on the game from our friends at Hundred Degree Hockey.

I am not sure at which point Torchetti is going to give Darcy Kuemper a start, but my guess is that he goes with Hackett tonight. Just a guess, but I would think Hackett tonight and then again tomorrow if he has a good performance.

We'll see when we get to the rink tonight.

This is the first of 12 games against the Stars, a team that missed the playoffs a year ago and fired its coach after one season. The "experts" don't think Texas will be very good this year, but they've won every competitive game they've played so far, and it looks like they A) have great goaltending and can B) score.

Here are some more notes from the Aeros Press Office:

• The Stars and Aeros have played each other 36 times (12 per year)
• Houston took the 2011-12 season series by going 7-2-2-1 (taking points in ten of 12 meetings)
• The Aeros are 20-12-3-1 all-time against the Stars
• Texas took the season series in 2009-10 by going 8-3-0-1, but the team is 8-11-2-1 over the last two years
• The Aeros' PP is 15th in the AHL, converting two out of 15 chances (13.3%)
• Houston's PK sits 27th out of 30 teams, stopping four of six attempts
• The Aeros rank 29th out of 30 teams in penalty minutes, averaging just ten minutes a game
• Houston is averaging 1.50 goals per game, while allowing 3.00 goals per game
• The team is 26th offensively and 19th defensively

And some more information about tonight's opponent:

Texas returns 18 players from a team that posted a 31-40-3-2 record and failed to qualify for the playoffs. The Stars made some changes over the summer, replacing the coaching staff of Jeff Pyle and Jeff Truitt, in exchange for Willie Desjardins and Doug Lidster. The Stars roster currently carries seven rookies, including a group of five that were able to turn pro and play the final ten games of the 2010-11 season.  In all, there are six stars heading into their fourth season with the team. Forwards Colton Sceviour, Travis Morin, Francis Wathier, Luke Gazdic and Mathieu Tousignant, as well as defenseman Maxime Fortunus, are all back to play the Aeros for the fourth straight year. Fortunus is a former member of the Houston Aeros (2003-05).

There are numerous other skaters returning to play the Stars this season. Defenseman Brenden Dillon and forward Mat Fraser return for their second season with the club. Dillon enjoyed a solid first season pro, setting up 23 goals and totaling 29 points in 76 games played. Fraser finished second in the AHL in goals scored, leading Texas with a team-record 37 goals in 73 games played. Left wing Mike Hedden is back for his second full AHL season after scoring 19 goals in 2011-12.

Dallas has assigned numerous high-end prospects to Texas including Reilly Smith, Jamie Oleksiak, Alex Chiasson, Austin Smith, Jack Campbell and Patrick Nemeth. Smith played the final three games in Dallas last year after playing three years at Miami (OH) University. Olekiak was Dallas’ first pick (#14th overall) in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft. At 6-foot-7 and 250-pounds, Oleksiak is the biggest player on the Texas roster. Jack Campbell is another Dallas first-round pick (#11 overall in 2010), who will split time in net with Cristopher Nilstorp. Chiasson and Austin Smith turned pro after completing college seasons last March. Patrick Nemeth comes to North America after playing in Sweden last season. The 20-year old defenseman was drafted by Dallas in the second round (#41 overall) in 2010.

Game Day Update

The Texas Stars will get on the bus bound for Toyota Center here shortly...In the meantime, there is some Aeros news to report. The Wild did assign Casey Wellman back to the Aeros. Not sure if this is a virtual assignment or a real one, but I am guessing it's the latter since they had to do that in order to get Mike Lundin off injured reserve.

Speaking of which, Russo's blog in MSP reported that Lundin has accepted a rehab assignment and will play for the Aeros this weekend. He'll probably play both home games ... no chance he'll do the three in three this weekend. The revolving hospital door up north keeps on spinning though. Just to make Aeros fans nervous, Jared Spurgeon and Dany Heatley did not practice for the Wild today. Both could be injured, just taking a day off or sick. Who knows at this point?

Also, if I were a bettin' man, I'd lay down a few bones that Jon DiSalvatore will be good enough to go tonight against Texas. The Aeros need him right now, especially against a Stars team that allows a ton of goals per game.

Update! Here is a link to a preview of the game from Stars' perspective....

Oh, and one housekeeping note here. We love all your comments, and we don't like to censor. We love compliments and criticism both equally. How can you get better if no one disagrees with you and dialogue dries up? But ... we are not going to publish comments when we are called names. If you call us a name and tell us WHY you are calling us a name. Well, we'd be more than happy to print that. But if you just call us a name, that is not going to fly.

Our readers want entertainment, and insults without explanation are not entertaining.

It all starts tonight against Milwaukee

I hate the Milwaukee Admirals. I know I am supposed to be impartial, etc., but I hate them because they are always good, they have a great coach, excellent goaltending and Nashville is probably the smartest team in the NHL when it comes to evaluating young talent.

And, the Admirals are going to enter the playoffs as THE team to beat out of the Western conference.

Tonight, the Aeros start a stretch against those Admirals where they will playing outside Texas just once in their next 18 games. For the next month and a half, they'll play three sets of three in threes, but seven of those games are at home and only once (this weekend when they go to OKC) will they have a disadvantage due to travel.

The Aeros passed all the tests they needed to pass to set themselves up for a very nice finish. In their last 14 games at Toyota Center, the Aeros are 10-3-0-1 (21 points). If they can duplicate that between now on the end of this 18 game stretch, they're going in as a No. 1 or 2 seed. If they win eight of them, I think that will be enough to get them into the playoffs.

But it won't be easy.

We have an intelligent, yet rogue commenter by the name of ICEVET who continues to point out how poorly the Aeros are on the power play and how they are near the top of the league in allowing shorthanded goals.

ICEVET is right in that the PP is very weak ... The PP needs to improve, if not thrive during this stretch of games.

Also, the Aeros have had a TON of success against both Texas and Oklahoma City this year. Trends and the law of averages suggests those teams are due for a few wins against the Aeros, and they play those two teams a combined six times during this stretch.

The Aeros will have to keep beating those teams and find a way to score more power play goals. And ... they are going to have to get better goaltending.

The team does seem to have those "intangibles" going for them so far. While not particularly great in any one area, they do enough to keep themselves in games and get two points. They have a great record in OT and shootouts and the Jon DiSalvatore/Patrick O'Sullivan combo has been very good.

DiSalvatore has points in five straight (2+3=5) and 14 of 16 (6+12=18) to lead the way. O'Sullivan has points in 13 of the 15 games he has played since joining the team (9+7=16) and has kept the power play from sliding all the way to the league's underbelly.

Since December, I have said if the team can just hang in there until late Feb. they'd be going to the postseason. Beyond losing a couple of key guys to injury or call-up, I still feel that way. They did what they needed to do to set things up for them. It's all there for the taking.

Now they just need to get it done. And it all starts tonight against Milwaukee.

(Click on the image below to see a schedule breakdown of the seven teams in the West fighting for five playoffs spots)

Turkey Trotters: Roster moves and Sully's Back (sorta)

Several Aeros players are going to have some solid vacations this summer thanks to the air miles they're racking up going back and forth to Minnesota and elsewhere.

In the last couple of days, the Wild have sent Casey Wellman back to Houston (#7 in case you forgot) and called up Matt Kassian and Justin Falk.

The Wild play the Flyers tonight, so Kassian isn't particularly a surprise. Never hurts to have some extra muscle against those guys. Falk is up as an injury replacement, if needed, according to Russo.

Might also interest folks who haven't heard that the Wild picked up Patrick O'Sullivan off waivers from Carolina yesterday. If you've been around a few years, you remember what a stud Sully was for the Aeros in 05-06 as a rookie with 93 points. Since then, however, his career hasn't really lived up to expectations.

The current plan is for him to start with the Wild, which he will do tonight as #19, but certainly he seems to be looked at as a temporary fix for the loss of Guillaume Latendresse to hip and sports hernia surgery.

There's always a chance he could get waived down to Houston if things don't work out up there or the needs change. He's on a 2-way deal and would only have to pass through waivers.

Tonight, the Aeros are in Cedar Park and sit two spots ahead of the Stars, but the Stars have 4 games in hand. So it's important for the Aeros to keep the pedal to the floor on this team, particularly while ubergoalie Brent Krahn is out with an undisclosed lower body injury.

Then they're back home Friday and Saturday vs. San Antonio and Milwaukee respectively.

If we don't post again before tomorrow, Happy Thanksgiving! I know I'll be giving a word of thanks for the Aeros being out of the basement. So much more fun to cover a happy team! Heck, it's just a lot more fun to watch a happy team.

Anyway, be well and safe travels to anybody hitting the roads.

Aeros sign Lampman, host Chicago tonight at 7:05

I think the Aeros made a good move when they signed veteran defenseman Bryce Lampman to a PTO Tuesday. What can it hurt? While it may take him awhile to get going, he should be servicable sooner vs. later assuming the guy has been working out.

Lampman (pictured right in a photo by our boy Chris Jerina) is a solid two-way guy with a heavy shot that should definitely help out on the power play. He was a fourth-round pick by the Rangers and has appeared in 400 professional games, registering 117 points (33-84-117) and 298 penalty minutes (PIM). The 6-foot-1, 201-pound defenseman played in 10 NHL games, all with New York, recording two penalty minutes over three seasons.

Lampman, 28, played in 57 games for the Peoria Rivermen last season and collected 20 points (7-13-20) along with 22 penalty minutes (PIM).

Aeros head coach Mike Yeo said Lampman would not be out there tonight, but could be "maybe this weekend."

"(We) want to give him a fair shot to get into game shape and get his timing," said Yeo.

Is it a trap?
Tonight is a quick home game, and then it is back on the road for two more in the Midwest.

There are several trap games on the schedule this year, and this is one of them. First game home after a long trip and couple that with a quick turnaround; these are the tough games ... hard games to win. To be fair, Sunday was one of those trap games, too. Last game of a long trip? That is a situation that many coaches know poses a big challenge to the group. They stepped up, battled hard and hit one out of the park in that game. Let's see if they can go 2-for-2.

Scouting the Wolves

Man, oh man ... what have we here? These impostors dressing as the Chicago Wolves have dropped six in a row and are coming off quite the shellacking in Cedar Park last night. They have not scored more than two goals in any of those losses, and they are THE worst team in the West. They had an off year a few years ago, but I don't think I have ever seen them in last place.

They still have a decent offense, but they have allowed a Conference-high 66 goals in 17 games. That works out to 3.88 per game, and that is just not going to cut it (even in the ECHL). A win tonight, and the Aeros are back to two games over .500 for the first time since they were 2-0 after the OT win at Oklahoma City.

I am not going to make a prediction on this one, as I don't really have a gut feeling one way or the other. If they Wolves have yet to hit rock bottom, the Aeros have to hope that doesn't happen for two or three more games. If so, this could be a break out game for Krog, Haydar and company.

Mighty Peoria comes to town

Tonight, the Aeros will play Game 3, and they'll get their first crack at the Peoria Rivermen. They are off to a 3-1 start and look to be every bit of the offensive juggernaut that many predicted.

They have a great mix of vets and young players and Ben Bishop looks to be every bit of the great goalie they need him to be. Bishop may not even get the start tonight, as he has played every minute of their first four games.

Maybe they go with the rookie Jake Allen in net. Maybe not. We'll find out tonight.

Last night in San Antonio, the Rivermen scored six goals on 20 shots, lighting up Rampage goalie Al Montoya like a Christmas tree. Graham Mink is the real deal, and Nick Drazenovic scored twice last night in the rout.

What we do know is the Aeros will go with Anton Khudobin tonight. He will be making his first start of the season, and I have no idea the last time Anton played meaningful hockey. It's been awhile, so the team better not cough up the puck as much as it did in the second and third period Friday night.

Mike Yeo would not mention names, only deferring to Matt Hackett who single-handedly earned the team a pair of points in the standings. Another game like Friday, and the Aeros will get thumped to the tune of 6,7 or 8-1.

The Aeros do, however, seem to be very good at finding loose pucks (rebounds) and putting those in the net. I know that is how the first goal was scored last night, and from what I understand, so did the game-winner in OT.

I learned a lot from Kevin Constantine in his three years. One thing I learned is that your first home game of the season is one of the most unpredictable of the year. There is no way to gauge how the team will react to playing at home for the first time.

Personally, I have a bad feeling because of Anton's rustiness. But if Peoria starts the rookie, who knows? It's the first home game of the season ... so don't be surprised no matter what happens.

Aeros sign Straub; Hilbert could go tonight

The Aeros announced today they got Dubielewicz back from Minnesota. Don't expect him to start tonight. The defensive corps(e) (pun!) is very depleted right now, so the team signed Brandon Straub from the CHL Allen Americans. Straub has seen a dozen or so games (in the last two years) with the Quad City Flames and the Lake Erie Monsters.

He was also a teammate of Chad Rau when the two were at Colorado College back in 06-07. The infamous Jimmy Kilpatrick was also on that team. I knew that name sounded familiar, so I did some research ... and, as it turns out, Straub was in training camp for the Texas Stars during the preseason. He is the guy that floated a lazy shot from the blue line that clipped off Dubielewicz' glove and went into the net for a soft goal and a 1-0 lead. The Aeros eventually won that game 3-2 in the shootout. (Do you remember that? This team used to win those.)

Switching gears, Andy Hilbert has been practicing and could make his long-awaited return after being out since December with a concussion. D-man Ryan Lannon, also out with a concussion, is not close to returning.

See you at the rink tonight.

Nie to start for Aeros in Milwaukee tonight

Well, Josh Harding's injury finally opened a door for Barry Brust to stick with the Aeros for a spell, but it looks like his homecoming will entail riding the pine, at least for tonight (though I'd guess tomorrow night, too).

The laceration on his leg from Wednesday, which required 30-some stitches, is just too sore for him play. As such, the team has signed a PTO with Ryan Nie, who has played 21 games this season for the ECHL Kalamazoo Wings, earning a 2.80 GAA and .91 save percentage in that time.

He's even faced Brust in the ECHL this season and ended up winning the game off a 9-round shootout in which only 1 goal was allowed of the 18 shots. Awwww. Git out. That's a tough one.

T3I has confirmed that Nie will get the start tonight, and Andrew will be on a little later with more info, so stay tuned.

As an added note, Max Noreau's x-rays came up negative, so while he won't be with the team this weekend, he also won't be out for 6-8 weeks healing a broken arm. That would have been a devastating blow to this team, so drink your milk, kids, and keep those bones strong.

Toss your Teddy Tonight

Aeros face off against the Peoria Rivermen tonight at 7:35 p.m.

It's annual Teddy Bear Toss night, which is one of my favorite games of the season. Of course, I've always got the goalies in mind and I often wonder what it's like to allow that goal that kicks off the hailstorm of stuffed animals. As if the horn and red light and roaring crowd aren't enough...

Anyway, bring a bear. Toss it on the ice after the first goal. Enjoy the spectacle. Experience Ben Bishop or Hannu Toivonen's chagrin.

Photo by Fred Trask >

Of course, the operative word here is "goal." Haven't exactly had a surplus of those lately. In fact, there haven't been any for a full on WEEK because the boys have had a monster break in the schedule.

If you follow enough hockey, you know this isn't necessarily a good thing. Rest is nice. Rust is filthy. You forget after a few days off how freaking HARD it is to win the battles required to win a hockey game. Hopefully it won't take long for them to remember.

The Aeros remain without Nathan Smith, who has been an energetic force on the ice when he's been on the roster. Wild players continue to get their skulls rattled and Andrew Ebbett is now out with a concussion, so it remains to be seen when Smith will be returned to the Aeros.

I'm sure one of the boys will be on later with some stats that will make you wonder if it's really worth getting out in the cold to watch this game tonight, but come on out anyway. We'll all keep each other warm with our bears.

As far as the etiquette for a bear toss if the Aeros get shut out, apparently end of the game is the time. I'm not being pessimistic. I'm just arming you with knowledge. And with that in mind, here's an article with everything you ever wanted to know about teddy bear tosses but were afraid to ask.

Getting to Know the Enemy: Milwaukee Admirals

Our friends at Admirals Short Shifts, who became wonderful frienemies during our playoff runs last season, have kindly provided us with a look at the state of the Ads as we approach a two-game series here in Houston this weekend.

ASS's very own Ryan Miller (not the goalie) put this together, while I provided them with a (much less thorough) Aeros update for their site. Here we go:

When you last saw the Admirals, it was game 7 of the divisional semi-finals, as the Aeros were victorious in the game (don't forget -- it was John Royal's presence in Milwaukee that put them over the top!).

What has happened since then for the Admirals? Not nearly the makeover that Houston has gone through. And just looking at the roster, you'd think that the Admirals should be a little bit better than 6-6-1-2. But there are two things that have kept the Admirals from being better -- The Nashville Predators, and goaltending.

The Predators had a slew of injuries that have led to more callups in the first month of the season than in all of last year. Chemistry has been hard to find, as coach Lane Lambert has had to shuffle his lines a lot more due to roster changes than in previous years. There was one 12 hour period where he lost three forwards -- Peter Olvecky and Andreas Thuresson to callups and Ryan Maki to a broken leg. Oh, and they had to fill a roster for a game that night in Rockford.

The other thing that is stunting the Admirals growth is their goaltending situation. Mark Dekanich was our #2 guy last year, and actually had himself a nice season in the games that Drew MacIntyre didn't play in. Drew signed with the Atlanta organization, and Dekanich has been thrust into the #1 goaltending slot with less than spectacular results so far.

As of Wednesday night, Dekanich ranks 42nd out of 50 goaltenders (with at least 300 minutes played) in the statistic of save percentage. We have seen soft goal after soft goal, and seen a goaltender that does not look comfortable in the crease. Dekanich has given up a first period goal in all but one of his starts so far this year, and the Admirals have spent a lot of the season playing catch-up as a result.

While Dekanich has been getting the majority of the minutes, rookie (and former 1st round pick) Chet Pickard has started only three games so far. Game 1 was a disaster, game 2 was a solid win, and game 3 was a game where he was beaten by some tough deflections. While his play is improving, Dekanich's doesn't seem to be, and it wouldn't surprise us if you'll see him one night this weekend.

But that's not to say that there aren't things that are going right for the Admirals. Center Cal O'Reilly is back and picking up right where he left off. Peter Olvecky has been a great addition so far, and frankly, I'm surprised that he hasn't spent more time in Nashville. He has shown that he has the ability to shift into a gear that most skaters don't have, and there have times where he has been the best player on the ice.

If he could do that 5 shifts a game, he'd be in Nashville. Defenseman Robert Dietrich has shown some great strides, and is deservedly now a major part of the power play.

Ryan Jones has fallen out of favor with Nashville for some reason, and for now, that's our gain. While he hasn't been lighting up the scoresheet, he continues to be a presence/nuisance in the crease area. He still draws a ton of penalties, and the goals are going to start coming again.

There may also be help on the horizon -- The Houston Aeros fans may be the first AHL fans to see Preds rookie Colin Wilson play at this level. Wilson has been recovering from a groin injury, and Preds coach Barry Trotz has said that when Wilson is ready to play, he'll spend some time with Milwaukee to get himself conditioned. Now the Ads are on a 6 game Texas trip, and it's entirely possible that we won't even see him play in Milwaukee. But we'll see how things go.

The Admirals have played the least amount of games in the league, and the least amount of home games too. So while it's tempting to hit the panic button after this ho-hum start, we need to keep reminding ourselves that it's a loooooong season. A strong showing in Texas over the next two weeks will go a long way in getting things back on track.

Click your heels three times....

Here's the bottom line for Your Houston Aeros: They friggin' need to get the puck in the net. They need to get off this mind-boggling power play schnide. They need to get it done 5 on 5, too. The goalies can't offer up shutouts every game.

So, with that in mind, I thought it might be time to call in the Goalie Angel to sprinkle some scoring dust on the boys sticks while they take their pre-game naps.

Go, Goalie Angel, Go!

Okay. Let's see how that works.

7:05 tonight -- Marco Rosa and the Manitoba Moose -- Canadian Anthem! -- See you there...

(Updated again!) Game Day Update: Goalie Movement

One of the guys may have something to add to this, but I thought I'd throw out there that the Texas Stars will have Magnificent Matt Climie back in the fold today. He's up with Dallas the last few days to cover for Marty Turco, who was out with the flu, but they released him, presumably so that he can play against Houston today.

Given that the Stars are on the third day of a 3-in-3 and Dallas doesn't play today, it makes an awful lot of sense. He'll be well rested and ready to get some game action after just backing up starter Alex Auld for a few days.

Also, though it hasn't been reported on the AHL transactions sheet, Pointstreak (the stats machine for the Central Hockey League) indicates that Brett Jaeger was returned to the Texas Brahmas yesterday. UPDATE: Though the scoresheet is showing Jaeger is still with the team, so who knows what's up. UPDATE to the UPDATE: The Brahmas activated him to let him "serve" his one game suspension for the spearing incident in his last game with them. If I heard correctly, Constantine told Joe O'Donnell it could be another week, maybe longer, before Harding is ready to play again, so it looks like it's Dubielewicz and Jaeger for a while.

I personally haven't heard what's going on... whether Khudobin has been reassigned to Houston or if they're bringing a different back-up in. Last I heard, it was looking like sometime this week that Josh Harding would be ready to practice again. The Wild don't play until Thursday and today is an off day for the big club, so... could be a number of scenarios.


Certainly, apart from one incredible period on Tuesday, when Dubielewicz and the boys held off Hamilton during all that penalty killing, Dubie hasn't impressed, so getting Khudobin back would be a real boon.

Still, apart from their fresh goalie in Climie, the Stars should be a bit tired today, while the Aeros traveled back from Michigan yesterday and should be a little bit fresher and hopefully pretty motivated after a two losses.

Let's get it on! (Regular season, that is)

Puck drops tonight in Manitoba between the Moose and the Aeros. Interesting way to bookend the summer and it will be especially interesting to see if the impressively well-gelled team we saw in pre-season remains so with the addition of the NHL guys who have been sent down this week.

And right behind that is seeing how they'll look against the Moose, who still look to be a very good team.

With that in mind, here are the season previews from each of the media outlets for which we write about the Aeros:

John Royal: "It's Hockey Season? Apparently so, and here's your preview"

Andrew Ferraro: "Aeros add NHL talent, revamp roster for 2009-10 season"

Heather Galindo: "Aeros appear pointed in the right direction" (That's what she said!)

Not to steal John's DJ gig, but:

Observations From The Morning Skate -- Quick Notes Edition

By now you've heard the big news for today. And as Luke Strand told me, it's that Matt Climie is starting in goal tonight. I spoke to Kevin Constantine during the skate, and the decision had not yet been made -- he and the staff wanted to wait until after Nolan Schaefer and Climie skated to make a decision.

As for Anton Khudobin, Constantine said that he's got a lower body injury. He got the injury during the third period on Wednesday night. During a time out of the third, Khudobin informed the trainers that he was hurt, then he skated back out to the net. The trainers checked him out at the end of the third period, and told Constantine that he could not play. "So we had no choice but to play Schaefer," Constantine said.

I don't really have much else for you. There was some off-the-record talk about players' beards. I did overhear Constantine talking to Manitoba's radio guy for an interview to be played during the game, and Constantine basically said he's not sure of what to expect from Climie.

The obvious scratches for tonight are Dane Crowley, Barry Brust, and Anton Khudobin. Paul Albers, Jesse Schultz, Marco Scandella, Jason Ryznar, and Carson McMillan all skated with the rest of the guys in the skate. Krys Kolanos did not skate, but I've rarely seen him out on the ice at the morning skate, so that doesn't mean anything.

A quick inside the numbers give us some basics. Only two teams in AHL history have ever come from 0-3 to win a series: Rochester in 1960 and Adirondack in 1989. But the Aeros are 3-0 this post-season when facing elimination. All-time, the Aeros are 7-5 in Calder Cup play when facing elimination. And in Game Fives, Houston is 7-10 all-time and 4-5 in Calder Cup action.

Corey Locke leagues the AHL is Calder Cup scoring with 20 points (11-9). Matt Beaudoin is second with 16 points (7-9=16).

The Moose/Cory Schneider have allowed just eight third period goals in 14 games, but the Aeros are responsible for five of the eight. The Aeros have 23 third period goals in the playoffs, compared to just 24 goals combined in all of the first, second, and overtime periods. The Aeros are outscoring their opponents 23-14 in the third period.

The big key again will be the first goal. The Aeros are 8-2 when scoring first, and they are 6-0 when leading after the first.

So what happens tonight? That's a damn good question. I think if the Aeros can get the first goal and if they can give Matt Climie some time to settle in after that first goal, then they might be okay, and they might be able to get back to Winnipeg for a Game Six. But frankly, the odds aren't in the favor of the Aeros. But if there's one thing we've learned this season, it's to never count out the Aeros (still, you have to wonder about just how many goalie injuries this team can take).

My bold prediction: the first team to score wins.

Inside the Numbers: What to Look For In Game Five

This may sound like a repeat, but the key to this game will be which team scores first. The Aeros are 6-1 in the playoffs when getting the first goal, and Milwaukee is 5-0. With the first period, the Aeros are 5-0, and the Admirals are 3-0. With the second period lead, the Aeros are 4-0 and Milwaukee is 4-0. But the strange number is this: the Aeros are 7-1 in games where they are either outshot or have the same number of shots as the opposition.

Aeros coach Kevin Constantine wants his team to be more aggressive in the Milwaukee end instead of sitting back and letting the Admirals pound away at Anton Khudobin all night. But Constantine admitted after the Game Four win that part of the Aeros lack of attack has come from scoring that first period goal and taking the lead. Milwaukee then increases its pressure in a kind of desperation, so the Aeros are forced back on defense.

That in turn helps to explain Milwaukee's 118-73 shot advantage over the Aeros, but then again, Milwaukee doesn't always have the chance to get off the best of shots, and the Aeros defense has been pretty solid in keeping them from getting close to Khudobin. That also partly explains the Aeros being held to 10 straight periods of seven shots or fewer on Milwaukee's goal.

Khudobin has currently shut out Milwaukee for 81:35. He's stopped 106 of Milwaukee's 111 shots at him, and he's stopped 269 of 292 shots he's faced in these playoffs.

Also, to repeat previous stats, the power play has been important for the Aeros. The Aeros are 13-for-39 on the power play in the playoffs, for third place among playoff teams. They have also stopped 51 of 56 opposition power plays, which is best in the AHL for the playoffs. When the Aeros score on the power play, they are 6-3, but in games where they have not allowed a power play goal, they are 7-1. The power play numbers are impressive, but Jeff Smith is the referee for this game, so it's highly possible that neither team will get a power play chance tonight as he's not known for calling lots of penalties.

The Aeros, all-time, are 7-9 in Game Fives, but they are 5-1 all-time in best-of-seven series when leading a series 3-1. The Admirals aren't so lucky. They are 11-26 all-time when facing elimination, including 11-16 in Game Fives (1-6 on the road).

The Aeros leading scorer is Corey Locke (5-6=11). Krys Kolanos (5-4=9), Matt Beaudoin (3-6=9),and Tony Hrkac (1-8=9) are next in line. Mike Santorelli is Milwaukee's leading scorer (4-4=8), and Cal O'Reilly is next (2-5=7). But the Admiral that needs to be stopped is former Aero Ryan Jones (4-2=6) who has scored three of Milwaukee's last five goals.

What can't be accounted for are the intangibles. Like how the teams react to Jeff Smith. Or if the heat, humidity, and soft ice continue to bother the Admirals. Reading the Milwaukee reactions after the games, it almost seems as if they've resigned themselves to losing this series by their reactions to the officiating and arena conditions. But based on the reactions of the Aeros I talked to this morning, they are fully expecting the Admirals to come out aggressively after the Aeros and attack the net, and if the Admirals score first, then all those thoughts of them having resigned themselves to losing are gone.

So those are the numbers. Make of them what you will. I predicted the Aeros to win in six, which means a trip back to Milwaukee. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Aeros end this tonight.

Inside the Numbers: What to Look For In Game Three

In many ways, this is going to sound like a repeat of the previous notes when it comes to the numbers versus Milwaukee. But maybe the Aeros will get this drilled into their heads and come out fighting. (Plus, I've got some Milwaukee numbers to throw in.)

The most important number is this: the Aeros need to score first. When the Aeros score first, they are 4-1 in the playoffs. And once they have that lead, they need to hang on to it because they are 3-0 for the playoffs when leading after the first period and when leading after the second period. This is important because Milwaukee is a perfect 3-0 when leading after the first period, and they are 4-0 when leading after the second. So the Aeros need to score first, and they need to hold on to the lead.

The next important number is the goals scored: the Aeros are, amazingly, 3-1 when they score two or fewer goals in the game. That means the defense is playing to its full potential and is keeping the pressure off of Anton Khudobin who's sitting in the crease. It also means the Aeros have been facing some really good goalies in Peoria's Manny Legace and Milwaukee's Drew MacIntyre.

The special team units also need to work their asses off again as the Aeros are 5-1 when they do not allow a power play goal, and they are 4-3 when they score a power play goal. The Aeros are 11-for-42 on the power play in the post season,and they have killed 45 of 50 opposition power plays. The Admirals, meanwhile, have only been able to convert on three of 22 power plays while having shut down 22 of 26 of opposition power plays.

I also thought you might be interested in knowing that the Admirals are 18-21 all-time in playoff Game Threes, and 8-11 when these games are on the road. However, since entering the AHL, the Admirals are 9-5 in Game Threes, including 5-4 on the road.

So the analysis is simple: score first; score on the power play; keep the lead, and shut down the other team's power play. If this happens, the Aeros win. It's all really elementary. And I'm pretty sure Kevin Constantine and the gang are aware of these numbers.

What these numbers don't do, however, is take us inside the human element. I wasn't allowed to watch Milwaukee's skate, but the Aeros appeared to be lose and ready to go when I watched them skating this morning -- that's more than can be said about Toyota Center which had the feel of a sauna. I hope things are improved by game time, but I can't say that I'm confident about that.

My only on record prediction is that the Aeros win this series in six. But I'll go out on a limb and say that the team that scores first tonight wins the game.

Game Six Aeros Video Preview

Here's the Game Six Preview from Aeros.com. The star of the show is definitely Mitch Love who appears to have fun with his time holding the microphone. Heather's already linked to some other video, but if want more audio and video, you can find lots of it over there.

As it is, back when this series started, I predicted the Aeros would win in six. And this is Game Six, so I'm sticking with that pick. I don't know which Aeros team will show up tonight, but it would be nice to see them take it to Peoria from the very start and just dominate the game all of the way through. I did sense a confidence from the team when I was down in the locker room after Game Five, and though they've said the right things all year, they seemed to really believe it this time.

The big problem as I see it is that this team has just been so damn good with coming from behind, that I can see them letting Peoria jump out to the lead again while they wait to kick it into gear in the third. But they know they can score on Legace -- I think they're over their awe of that guy -- and I think a fully healthy Krys Kolanos can kick them into gear early.

I'm not worried about Anton Khudobin. Maybe I should be. But I've come to grips with Khudobin. He's not had a lot of AHL time this year, and he's been thrown into the fire. Does he have his faults? Yes. But the key to the game will be the play in front of Khudobin. If the defense is tight and keeps Peoria away from the goal and keep the ice clear, then I think Khudobin will be okay. And if the offense spends the whole game pressing and keeps Peoria backed up, I think that will help also.

I'm not predicting the score. But I'm sticking with my choice of the Aeros winning this thing in six games. And look for Kolanos to have a big game.

Round 1, Game 5: Some Pregame Notes

I've been poring over the notes, trying to get some idea of what is going to happen tonight. And my conclusion: I don't know. What? Do you think I'm Andrew or something? However, I'm not backing off of my prediction of the Aeros winning in six, so I guess that means they have to win tonight.

The Aeros will hopefully be returning Krys Kolanos to the lineup tonight. He was pretty sick Monday, and the team played kind of sick without him. Let's hope all of the guys are on their game tonight.

The cliche is that the team that scores first in the playoffs wins the game. And in this series, that has been true with the team that scores first winning each game. For the season, Houston is 23-9-1-3 when scoring first, and Peoria is 34-7-2-1. But luckily, the Aeros were better in the season in coming from behind, going 15-22-1-6 when they let the other team score first while Peoria is only 9-24-0-3. What's that mean? The Aeros have a decent ability to come from behind and win games. But if Peoria falls behind early, they lose.

So here's to the Aeros getting the first goal tonight.

The key has been the first period, of course. Peoria has been killing Houston in the first period, outshooting the Aeros 45/24 in the opening period. And while Khudobin's play hasn't been spectacular, he's only let in three first goals while handling that barrage of shots. The Aeros have, like they have for most of the season, dominated play in the third period. They've outshot Peoria 60/32 in third, and they've outscored Peoria in the third frame. Of course, the Aeros have been behind in the third often and they've been playing desperate hockey.

And aside from the key of the first period and the key of the first goal, another key is the number of goals scored. Peoria loses when it scores two or less goals in a game -- 0-2 in the playoffs and 9-24-1-2 in the regular season. So if the Aeros score first, and if they keep Peoria to two or fewer goals, they should win this game.

It would also help if Krys Kolanos is healthy and able to skate.

Down the Stretch - Iowa Chops Pregame

Last night, the Aeros did not get much help, but thanks to Peoria's win over Chicago, the Aeros magic number is down to four. Last month, I said it would be the Aeros, IceHogs and Wolves joining the Admirals in the playoffs. Now, it is almost certain that Peoria will be in with the defending champs (Wolves) on the outside looking in.


If the Aeros win two of three this weekend, I think that sets them up nicely for home ice in the first round against Peoria. Raise your hand, though, if you want to see the Aeros open up on the road against that monster Rivermen team right now. To be honest, I would rather see the Aeros slip to fourth than have to try to beat Manny Legace ... but we'll leave that to worry about next week. Those games against the Rampage will be huge.


Here is the updated down the stretch chart. Click on the pic for a clearer view.