Inside the Numbers: What to Look For In Game Three

In many ways, this is going to sound like a repeat of the previous notes when it comes to the numbers versus Milwaukee. But maybe the Aeros will get this drilled into their heads and come out fighting. (Plus, I've got some Milwaukee numbers to throw in.)

The most important number is this: the Aeros need to score first. When the Aeros score first, they are 4-1 in the playoffs. And once they have that lead, they need to hang on to it because they are 3-0 for the playoffs when leading after the first period and when leading after the second period. This is important because Milwaukee is a perfect 3-0 when leading after the first period, and they are 4-0 when leading after the second. So the Aeros need to score first, and they need to hold on to the lead.

The next important number is the goals scored: the Aeros are, amazingly, 3-1 when they score two or fewer goals in the game. That means the defense is playing to its full potential and is keeping the pressure off of Anton Khudobin who's sitting in the crease. It also means the Aeros have been facing some really good goalies in Peoria's Manny Legace and Milwaukee's Drew MacIntyre.

The special team units also need to work their asses off again as the Aeros are 5-1 when they do not allow a power play goal, and they are 4-3 when they score a power play goal. The Aeros are 11-for-42 on the power play in the post season,and they have killed 45 of 50 opposition power plays. The Admirals, meanwhile, have only been able to convert on three of 22 power plays while having shut down 22 of 26 of opposition power plays.

I also thought you might be interested in knowing that the Admirals are 18-21 all-time in playoff Game Threes, and 8-11 when these games are on the road. However, since entering the AHL, the Admirals are 9-5 in Game Threes, including 5-4 on the road.

So the analysis is simple: score first; score on the power play; keep the lead, and shut down the other team's power play. If this happens, the Aeros win. It's all really elementary. And I'm pretty sure Kevin Constantine and the gang are aware of these numbers.

What these numbers don't do, however, is take us inside the human element. I wasn't allowed to watch Milwaukee's skate, but the Aeros appeared to be lose and ready to go when I watched them skating this morning -- that's more than can be said about Toyota Center which had the feel of a sauna. I hope things are improved by game time, but I can't say that I'm confident about that.

My only on record prediction is that the Aeros win this series in six. But I'll go out on a limb and say that the team that scores first tonight wins the game.