Inside the Numbers: What to Look For In Game Four

Just thought that I would note that, for all of the grief we give him about his rebounds, Anton Khudobin, coming into tonight's game ranks second in the AHL playoffs with 242 saves out of 265 shots, and third in minutes with 588. So while he's not as polished as Nolan Schaefer, he's getting the job done -- that means he's due a beating tonight for sure.

Meanwhile, here's the standard set of numbers. When the Aeros score first in the playoffs, they're 5-1 (including 2-0 versus Milwaukee). They're 4-0 when leading after the first period, and they're 6-1 when they don't allow a power play goal. All-time, the Aeros are 11-10 in game fours, including a record of 3-8 in games played in Houston.

The Admirals, meanwhile, are 5-0 when scoring the first goal in the playoffs, and they're 3-0 when leading after the first period. Milwaukee is 18-17 all-time in game fours, including a record of 11-8 on the road. They're also 10-2 in game fours since joining the AHL.

As was mentioned in the post on the Morning Skate, Aeros coach Kevin Constantine feels that the Admirals have played the superior hockey. This can be seen in the shots on goal category, which Milwaukee leads by 91-59 through three games. However, as a testament to Khudobin's play in goal, and the play of his defense, the two teams each have 12 goals. However, 13 of Houston's postseason goals have come in the third period, as opposed to just a total of 12 goals in the first two periods of those same 10 games.

The leading scorer for Houston is Corey Locke (5-6=11), including nine points on the power play (3-6=9). Next for Houston is Matt Beaudoin (3-6=9) and Tony Hrkac (1-8=9). Fourth in scoring is Krys Kolanos (4-4=8). Hrkac (1-3=4) and Kolanos (3-1=4) each have four even strength points. Locke's 20 points rank him at second in scoring in the AHL playoffs. Beaudoin is at ninth, Hrkac is at 13th, and Kolanos is 18th. Locke is third in goals, and Hrkac is fourth in assists. Max Noreau, with six points (3-3=6) leads all AHL defensemen in scoring, and he is tied for first with two game-winning goals.

Milwaukee's leading scorer is Mike Santorelli (4-4=8). Cal O'Reilly is second (2-5=7), Ryan Jones is third (4-2=6) and Jed Ortmeyer is fourth (1-5=6). And while Ryan Jones is fifth in playoff scoring for rookies, the number one rookie scorer is Matt Beaudoin.

Constantine is expecting the Admirals to find another way to counterpunch tonight, and it would be my best guess that they start concentrating on getting to Corey Locke in some fashion in order to screw around with his game. I also look for them to try to find someway to get more close-up pressure on Khudobin, because Anton can get lost as he makes a stop and the puck rebounds away. And while I could be wrong, I don't expect Constantine to make many adjustments to the Aeros play. He wants them focusing on themselves and their style of play, and concentrating less on what Milwaukee's doing.

So the keys are the same as always. The team that scores first should win, especially if that team has the lead after the first period. If the Aeros shut down Milwaukee's power play again, then they should get the win. The intangibles are going to be Milwaukee's reaction to Francois St. Laurent being back as the referee -- the Admirals were very upset about his calls on Tuesday, so that could get into their heads. Of course, St. Laurent could decide to call lots of penalties on Houston instead.

There you have it. I don't predict which teams will win the individual games. And I'm just throwing the numbers out there for you to think on during the game.