Observations From The Morning Skate -- Quick Notes Edition

By now you've heard the big news for today. And as Luke Strand told me, it's that Matt Climie is starting in goal tonight. I spoke to Kevin Constantine during the skate, and the decision had not yet been made -- he and the staff wanted to wait until after Nolan Schaefer and Climie skated to make a decision.

As for Anton Khudobin, Constantine said that he's got a lower body injury. He got the injury during the third period on Wednesday night. During a time out of the third, Khudobin informed the trainers that he was hurt, then he skated back out to the net. The trainers checked him out at the end of the third period, and told Constantine that he could not play. "So we had no choice but to play Schaefer," Constantine said.

I don't really have much else for you. There was some off-the-record talk about players' beards. I did overhear Constantine talking to Manitoba's radio guy for an interview to be played during the game, and Constantine basically said he's not sure of what to expect from Climie.

The obvious scratches for tonight are Dane Crowley, Barry Brust, and Anton Khudobin. Paul Albers, Jesse Schultz, Marco Scandella, Jason Ryznar, and Carson McMillan all skated with the rest of the guys in the skate. Krys Kolanos did not skate, but I've rarely seen him out on the ice at the morning skate, so that doesn't mean anything.

A quick inside the numbers give us some basics. Only two teams in AHL history have ever come from 0-3 to win a series: Rochester in 1960 and Adirondack in 1989. But the Aeros are 3-0 this post-season when facing elimination. All-time, the Aeros are 7-5 in Calder Cup play when facing elimination. And in Game Fives, Houston is 7-10 all-time and 4-5 in Calder Cup action.

Corey Locke leagues the AHL is Calder Cup scoring with 20 points (11-9). Matt Beaudoin is second with 16 points (7-9=16).

The Moose/Cory Schneider have allowed just eight third period goals in 14 games, but the Aeros are responsible for five of the eight. The Aeros have 23 third period goals in the playoffs, compared to just 24 goals combined in all of the first, second, and overtime periods. The Aeros are outscoring their opponents 23-14 in the third period.

The big key again will be the first goal. The Aeros are 8-2 when scoring first, and they are 6-0 when leading after the first.

So what happens tonight? That's a damn good question. I think if the Aeros can get the first goal and if they can give Matt Climie some time to settle in after that first goal, then they might be okay, and they might be able to get back to Winnipeg for a Game Six. But frankly, the odds aren't in the favor of the Aeros. But if there's one thing we've learned this season, it's to never count out the Aeros (still, you have to wonder about just how many goalie injuries this team can take).

My bold prediction: the first team to score wins.

Observations From The Morning Skate -- The Cliche Edition (with numbers)

Excuse the lateness of this posting, but I was busy with some breaking news for the mothership. That said, I’ll just combine the observations from the morning skate with inside the numbers for just one post.

So…

You’ve already seen the big news from the Morning Skate about Anton Khudobin getting the start tonight at goal for Houston. Kevin Constantine said it was nothing that Nolan Schaefer did wrong, but more that Khudobin is the guy who has gotten the wins for the team in the playoffs.

“We’re going back to Anton. He’ll start tonight,” Constantine said. “We really, with Anton in the playoffs, didn’t have a lot of choices because the other goalies were hurt. Then you get back to where Nolan and Barry are healthy and you start to have choices and the decisions get harder. We’d gone into our last game having won only one of our last five, so we thought we would try something so we tried Nolan. He didn’t play a bad game. He didn’t make some big saves in some situations where we needed big saves, but at the same time we gave up really, really high quality chances that you wouldn’t look at those as goalie mistakes but as we gave up too big a chances. We don’t think he played bad. At the same time, Anton seems to be the guy who’s gotten wins in the playoffs for us, so we’re going back to him.”

As for this being the ultimate do-or-die game for the Aeros, Tony Hrkac, while apologizing, went with the clichés. “You take it period by period,” he said. “I know it’s all of the old clichés, shift by shift, but our backs are against the wall so we have to take it like that. That’s got to be our mentality. We’ve got to play our game. Play hard. Play smart. We really have to do things right because they’re a good team. Any mistakes and we’re done.”

Constantine isn’t even looking at it as one game at a time or just winning a period. To him, none of that matters. “When you start worrying about wins and losses you’re way ahead of yourself,” he said. “You’ve got to get into the process that turns you into a winner and focus on that.”

And the process is one of learning from game to game and applying the good things from the last game to the next game while cutting back on the bad things. “All we’ve talked about is how have the first three games gone,” he said. “What did we learn from the first three games, how did Game Three go as opposed to Game Two, and what did we learn from Game Three. All of those things trying to prepare us to do our best job in Game Four. That’s all we’ve talked about.”

As for the guys during the skate, they looked loose. They didn’t appear uptight, and they didn’t appear worried about tonight’s game. They worked on their shots. Khudobin and Schaefer worked on blocks and rebounds.

Danny Irmen says he’s trying not to focus on Manitoba: “They’re an experienced team, and a lot of them have been here before. We’ve just got to worry about ourselves and not worry about them. We’ve got to focus on what we’ve got to do right.”

As to the actual game, Hrkac says it all comes down to the first period: ‘We have to have a good first period. Tie it at least.”

I think Mr. Hrkac has been looking at the numbers, because, while kind of bleak, the numbers speak truth. Manitoba is 9-0 when it scores first, and it is 7-0 when it has the lead after the first period. The Aeros are 1-7 when they let the other team score first, and they are a miserable 0-8 when trailing after the first. But if the Aeros can get the lead or a tie at the end of the first, they’re 8-1.

So forget all of the other numbers. The numbers at the end of the first period are all that matters. If Houston can get on the board first and at least hold it to a tie, then they just might be able to pull out at least one game of the series. Otherwise, it’s all over.

More Notes From The Morning Skate and a Quick Look Inside the Numbers

“If you can’t get yourself ready for a game like this,” Clayton Stoner said, “then you don’t deserve to be here.”

Here is Milwaukee. The game is Game Seven of a best of seven series with the Milwaukee Admirals.

“I’m excited,” Stoner said. “This is the kind of thing you dream about when you’re younger. Playing these big games. Hopefully the best team wins. It’s just exciting to be part of it.”

The Aeros looked a bit different out on the ice this morning. There wasn’t all of the laughing and joking of Saturday’s Game Five skate. The guys are all smiles and they rib each other a bit. But the focus is a little different. And after the disasters were games five and six, perhaps the focus should be a little different, especially after Monday night’s 7-0 disaster.

“Right after the game, we said it’s over with,” Stoner said. “We weren’t real proud of the way we played. But some games go like that. It’s hockey. We got over it quickly. We went to dinner afterwards and we talked about Game Seven and not Game Six.”

The Aeros have been a maddening team to watch this season. Offensively, this has been one of the most talented teams the Aeros have sent out on the ice in years. And Krys Kolanos, Corey Locke, and Jesse Schultz have brought a scoring mentality to the team. But there have been stretches when the offense has backfired and accomplished nothing. Then the offense has been on fire but the defense has let down. For the first half of the season, the team couldn’t keep a lead, but the team would never quit and could score in the third to steal the game.

So I don’t really know what to tell you to expect tonight. I’ve got no clue.

Anton Khudobin is starting at goal with Nolan Schaefer prepared to come off of the bench to back him up. Barry Brust is also now skating with the team, but he won’t suit up tonight. Khudobin has shown in these playoffs that he can play some really fantastic hockey. He’s also been awful at times, and in six games against Milwaukee, he’s completed only three. And if he starts out poorly again, Schaefer will probably come out to relieve him.

“It’s tough not having played for five weeks,” Schaefer said about his play on Monday night. “My first full practice was the morning skate with the team, but it’s the playoffs, and we have to rise to the occasion. And I didn’t really do that….Anton’s got the start tonight. I know he’ll do well.”

“The bottom line is it’s just down to a winner-take-all situation,” head coach Kevin Constantine said. “We just want to stick with our plan and stick with what’s worked for us all year.”

What do the stats indicate for tonight?

The Aeros are 5-1 all-time in playoff game sevens, including 3-0 in Calder Cup games. So the Aeros have that in their favor. The Aeros are 6-2 in the playoffs when they score first, and they are 5-0 when they lead after the first and 2-1 if they are tied after one period. But if the Aeros are losing after two periods, they’re 1-5.

So it’s pretty much the standard things that I’ve been writing this series: the Aeros need to get the first goal, and they need to have the lead after one period. If they can do that, they should win.

Krys Kolanos will be a game-time decision. He didn’t skate this morning, but it’s my understanding that he doesn’t always make the morning skate. Tomas Mojzis didn’t travel with the team, and he’s in Houston.

So what happens tonight? Hell if I know. The Aeros have been consistent at one thing this year. And that’s being inconsistent. With their play the past two games, it looks like they should lose, but then again, the Aeros have sometimes played their best hockey when it’s thought they’ll be awful.

All that I know is I predicted the Aeros to win in six games. That didn’t happen. But I’ll stick with my prediction that the Aeros win. I’ll probably be wrong. But I don’t back off my predictions.

SOME MISCELLANEOUS NOTES:

I'm listening to the radio up here in Milwaukee, and apparently, according to Milwaukee management who were just on the radio here, Krys Kolanos was a healthy scratch on Monday. So it's nice to see that they don't know what the hell they're talking about. I confirmed during the game on Monday that he was injured, and I reconfirmed at the skate this morning.

Also, according to Milwaukee sports radio, if the Admirals win tonight, they're going to the Calder Cup finals.

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The definitive Aeros scratches for tonight are Tomas Mojzis, Jesse Schultz, John Adams, Barry Brust, and Matt Climie. The Milwaukee exec who was on the radio getting the facts wrong about Kolanos also thought that it was funny the Aeros had to have four goalies on the roster. Yeah, it's a real laugh riot that the team's two top goalies got hurt at the end of the season.

And the new guy might be in town with the team, but he didn't skate with them this morning.

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And one further thing. I watched Game Six on AHL Live Monday night, and I was a bit disgusted by some of the chatter on the chat room. So I'd like to make a plea for a little civility during the game. There's no need to be making fun of the way people look or calling them fat and getting into flame wars.

I think we're all adults and we should act like adults. Of course, I won't be watching the game on AHL Live so I've got no clue as to what will happen on there anyway. But I just wanted to make the suggestion.

Observations From The Morning Skate -- Quick Notes Edition

Just a few quick notes from this morning's skate...of which I just returned. I'll give you some quotes, etc., later, but I want to go get some lunch.

Anton Khudobin will be starting at goal for the Aeros tonight. Nolan Schaefer says that he is ready to play if needed, and his knee feels good.

Krys Kolanos did not skate, and he will be a game-time decision. Tomas Mojzis did not skate either.

The guys looked loose and ready to go. They were a little more serious on the ice than they were on Saturday morning, but it didn't look like they were gripping their sticks or anything. Clayton Stoner says the team went to dinner after Monday's game and put the game out of their mind and they're ready to go tonight.

And for those of you who are interested, the entire team went to Miller Park to watch the Brewers defeat the Florida Marlins last night.

I'll have more later. I'll try to get an inside the numbers thing up, but that will just depend on when I get and how tired I am.

Observations From The Morning Skate -- The Power Dancers Edition

"This is great," Tony Hrkac said this morning. "This is unbelievable. It’s a great bunch of guys. Not too many guys get a chance to do this. When you retire you think oh yeah I can play, I can play…I’ve got a chance to do it, and this has been a terrific experience."

I talked to Tony Hrkac after the morning skate for what I consider to be obvious reasons. He's the old guy on the team who was brought on for his experience, especially his Calder Cup and Stanley Cup experience. So if there's going to be an elder statesmen on the team, some one who's going to be Mr. Serious and keep the guys focused on winning, it's got to be Hrkac.

Well, yeah. Kind of.

The thing is. I don't think the guy can be too serious. He's having too much fun playing hockey, doing what he thought he would never get the chance to do again. And not only is he playing, he's contributing, with nine points (1-8=9) in 10 games.

But that said, one would also think that games like tonight's Game Five with Milwaukee, a game that sends the Aeros to the next around against Manitoba should they win, would be rather routine for a guy like Hrkac who has played on a Stanley Cup winning team as well as a Calder Cup winning team. If there's anyone who doesn't get butterflies in his stomach for a game like this, it would be Hrkac, right?

Well, no.

"Oh yeah. I think you should," Hrkac said about the butterflies and being nervous. "It means you’re into it and ready to play. This is a fun game. But you want to do well, so when you’re nervous a little bit, that’s a good sign."

I don't know how nervous all of the guys are about tonight's game, but they did appear to be having a good time on the ice this morning. Justin Falk is a bit of the comedian. He lets out this loud whoop whenever one of his shots gets close to the net, then he goes into this goofy dance which is part Krys Kolanos and part Marco Rosa. Other guys are banging around or trying to get the pucks into the stands. So if this morning is any indication, they're not gripping the stick too hard.

"You know their backs are against the wall," Hrkac said of Milwaukee. "They’re going to come out flying, so you just have to match or be better than them. We know we can play well. We know we can beat this team, but it’s going to have to be our best game. They’re going to come out flying. They’re a good team. They’re just not going to give it to us. We can’t go out there squeezing our sticks and being overly nervous and not making good plays or mental mistakes. It’s still the same game, but probably a little higher tempo. You’ve got to keep guys relaxed a little bit and ready to go."

So based on what I saw this morning, and based on the criteria from Hrkac, I say they're ready to go tonight.

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I've been reading that the Admirals aren't exactly having fun out on the ice. Tuesday night, it was the officiating. Thursday night, it was supposedly the heat and humidity and the condition of the ice. If they didn't like the ice on Thursday, then they're really not going to like it tonight.

The Rockets played a late game last night, which means the ice was covered by the wood floor and stands really late into the night. And I'm sure Toyota Center officials weren't too concerned with keeping it cooled down. The building itself, this morning was warm and very humid, more so than it's been the other times this week.

So I was curious. In the past, I've asked Kevin Constantine about the ice, and how it affects the team, and his response has always been that it affects each team because each team has to play on it and each team has to deal with the humidity. But I got to thinking, the Aeros are used to this, and judging by the statements coming from Milwaukee, they're not used to it, and they're not liking it. So I asked Constantine if this could, actually, be giving the Aeros a special home ice advantage. He said no.

"During the regular season, I think that answer would be a yes because we’d be here and we’re used to it," he said. "But I think when you go into the playoffs with both teams spending an equal time in each city you’re all under the same conditions. So I don’t think it’s as much an advantage in the playoffs."

As for the game tonight, Constantine, who despite the wins hasn't been entirely pleased with his team's play, expects Milwaukee to come out on the attack. So he'd like for his guys to respond by becoming the aggressor and attacking the Milwaukee zone instead of laying back on defense.

As to how he wants his team to handle this game with the possibility of playoff advancement just waiting for them, he's also hoping for the team to be attacking. "We just talked about taking an aggressive attitude into the game," he said. "Sometimes you get in these situation, and you just kind of hope it works out because you don’t feel the pressure to make it work out."

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The definite scratches for tonight are Dane Crowley, Tomas Mojzis, Jesse Schultz, John Adams, Nolan Schaefer, and Barry Brust. Once again, Albers was skating, and he looked good. I've got nothing to back this up with, but I'd expect to see him back on the ice tonight taking Mojzis's spot. As to Mojzis, Constantine says he is day-to-day but will return before Jesse Schultz.

I talked to Nolan Schaefer briefly. He says his knee is feeling good and he's ready to play. He was frustrated earlier because the rehab wasn't going as expected, but he says he's in good spirits now because the knee doesn't hurt and because the team is winning.

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The referee for tonight's game is Jeff Smith. He doesn't believe in blowing the whistle. So who knows who this will help or hurt tonight. That could mean that the Aeros won't get nailed for some of those stupid penalties they like to commit, but it could also mean that the Admirals are just going to whale away on whichever Aero is handy.

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As to the photo...I suppose I knew this and forgot, but while waiting for Constantine to emerge from the locker room this morning, I noticed the sign for the Rockets Power Dancers, and it dawned on me that the Aeros share the same locker room with the Power Dancers.

I bet that locker room could tell some stories.

And I'll be back with Inside the Numbers later this afternoon.

Observations From The Morning Skate -- The Sultry Edition

Went over to the Aeros morning skate at Toyota Center again today and watched a bit and took some notes. I also talked to Kevin Constantine and J.P. Testwuide, but I'll get to that in a moment. First, some notes.

Your definite scratches for this game are Jesse Schultz -- who Constantine says isn't close to returning -- Barry Brust, Nolan Schaefer, Dane Crowley, and John Adams. Paul Albers was once again skating with the guys in practice, and once again he looked to be fine with me. Constantine said they were going to make a decision regarding his availability for tonight sometime after the skate was finished.

Towards the end of practice, Max Noreau lined up from the point and sent slap shot after slap shot toward Khudobin. It looked like they were working on getting Khudobin to make more glove saves on those shots as Noreau appeared to be aiming directly at Anton and less at the net. And early on, it looked like the skaters were trying some different approaches with shooting the puck, it especially looked like they were working on elevating the puck.

And for as much criticism as we give him, Benoit Pouliot appeared to really be working hard. He was the first one out on the ice. He spent about five minutes alone practicing his shooting -- and if he would just shoot the puck during the game like he does in practice he would be fine -- and he was one of the last ones off, along with Justin Falk and Marco Scandella.

And seeing as how Milwaukee was bitching about the officiating Tuesday night, I'm guessing they're going to be in a lousy mood tonight as Francois St. Laurent, who worked as the ref on Tuesday night, is back for tonight. It can be argued that this will work in Milwaukee's favor as maybe St. Laurent will turn around and put the Admirals on a five-on-three power play late in the game.

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Kevin Constantine got around to reviewing the game tape of Game Three, and despite the win, he wasn't entirely happy.

"For us,"he said. "We had an okay first, and a really bad second – for most of the second the bad was our shifts were too long and we didn’t play very simple and we played a lot of one-on-one hockey instead of a team game. Then a really good recovery and we played a simpler third and only gave up three chances."

The primary thing he didn't like about Tuesday night was the sloppiness of the play, to which he primarily attributed the ice conditions. "I think the game was maybe a little sloppy," he said. "I think that the heat in the building...[was] a little sweatier with hotter sultry feeling to the rink here [as opposed to Milwaukee], I think both teams created some fatigue. It created a little less swiftness of play. So the game was a little bit sloppier than maybe the games in Milwaukee were."

And as some of you are aware, Milwaukee was rather upset about the officiating in Game Three. And I asked Constantine about those complaints, and about whether the Aeros took it as a slight that the Admirals seem to feel that the Aeros wouldn't have won the game without the assistance of the referees.

"I think Milwaukee was upset mostly in the fact that we scored a five-on-three goal to win the game, the winning goal," he said. "Then teams want to question whether the referee should have put them down two guys. It’s not very relative to us. We always have a focus that’s way more on how we’re playing.

"All I know is Milwaukee won our division. They’re very good. They’ve outplayed us the last two games in a row, even though on the scoreboard each team’s earned a win. The territory and the scoring chances have slightly favored them. We’ve got a lot of respect for how good they are. And we have to play really well to beat them."

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I also took a little time after practice to chat briefly with J.P. Testwuide, a rookie who joined the Aeros in time to get in some playing time in the season-ending series with San Antonio. Testwuide was signed to the team as a defenseman, but since he played some forward in college, he was asked to work there, as well, and he's now getting significant playing time as a forward in the playoffs.

"I didn’t really know what to expect," he said. "The coaches just told me to come out here and work hard. They didn’t know if they were going to be playing me at forward or dee, so I’ve just had to make adjustments to get into the lineup."

But since he's played them both, the adjustments haven't been that difficult, and he finds that his experience as a defenseman is helping him to play forward in Constantine's system. "It’s definitely tough," he said about the switch. "You have to pay attention to your details. You have to be really defensive minded. That kind of plays into my game because playing dee so much, I like to come back to the net and make simple plays and get the puck out. So I hope I’m just contributing in a good way."

And it seems, like with so many other people, he's become attached to Houston, or at least the organization. "It’s a great group of guys," he says. "Everybody’s so nice. Everybody down here in Houston is unbelievable. I’ve got nothing but nice things to say about people in this organization."

So that it's for now. I'll be back with my look inside the numbers as game time draws closer.