Down the Stretch, 2012 Edition

For the first time this season, two members of the Wild/Aeros organization used the word "if" when talking Aeros and the playoffs.

I am rather confident that these two think the team will get a chance at the cup, but the word "when" was replaced with "if" during two recent conversations.

To be sure, the Aeros recent slide can be attributed to injuries with the Wild and the team constantly having to play with a short bench and many ECHL call-ups. But John Torchetti has kept this team alive, and the Aeros are mostly intact for the stretch run.

Last night the Aeros fell from fifth to seventh because the Heat and Rampage both won road games. The Aeros have three more games on the trip, and they need at least one more win for it to be a respectable trip. Two wins would be real good, and winning all three would be a  nice surprise.

This graphic will evolve as we get closer to April.  I will link to Hundred Degree Hockey's playoff projections. He actually uses maths to determine which teams will not only make the playoffs, but which teams will be seeded where. My chart just gives you an overview of who plays where and how they perform during the last 20 or so games of the season.

Enjoy, and feedback is always appreciated.

Please click on picture for a larger/clearer view of the standings. 

View from the Pressbox - Admirals 5, Aeros 4

Don't worry, folks, the blown two-goal lead tracker was updated late in the third period when the team officially gave up. Tonight's game was a perfect case in point as to why the Milwaukee Admirals are the best team in the West division.

It was a weird game from the get-go, and the Admirals showed poise even after Patrick O'Sullivan scored a pretty breakaway goal in the third period, followed by a scrappy goal by Warren Peters. Milwaukee tied the game less than a minute later, and I don't even think the Aeros had five shots after that.

Several players stood out to me with poor games tonight, but Anton wasn't one of them. He wasn't great or good, just incredibly unlucky as three of Milwaukee's goals went off of Aeros players. I think the only real poor goal was the game-winner as he lost sight of a rebound.

Anton fell to 1-6-1-1 all time against the Admirals, and this was the first time he ever received four goals in his favor. Bad things just happen when he plays against this team in the regular season, and tonight was just another example of that.

The team is a lot more fun to cover when they win, so I sure hope this three losses in four games is just a fluke. Mike Yeo held the players for more than 20 minutes after this game and politely declined to give specifics on what was said.

I guess we'll see if any of it hits home Friday against Texas.

Here is an updated look at the down the stretch standings for the rest of the regular season. Please click on the image for better look.

Down the Stretch - Doo, Doo, Doo ... Doo-da-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo

That is me humming the tune to "Another one bites the dust" as in that is what happen to the Chicago Wolves today at Bradley Center. Special thanks to Bradley Center Boys for putting that team to sleep. It was a foregone conclusion when the Atlanta Thrashers recalled Ondrej Pavelec and sent Dan Turple down ... Turple only played five minutes and Brent Krahn took the loss.

Now it's down to the Rockford IceHogs, Aeros and Quad City Flames for the last two spots in the West. QC has to win out, and the Aeros and Pigs are in with a single win in their last three games.

Isn't it amazing how well the Aeros are with "in-game" adversity, but how lousy they are when they have other kinds of adversity like long road trips, playing on days in which they sat on an airplane or playing a lot of games in a lot of days. Look back to the last time they were stinky. End of 2008 and right on through the first of January.

I think I have a pretty good idea of why that is, but I am not sure whose fault that is. It's just a reality of the team and everyone knows it from the team doctor to the head coach. Someone once said this team is too dumb to give up because they don't know how bad they are. That is kind of true if you look at the team's goals for, goals against numbers. I know the goaltending situation is a mess, but look at the team's offense during this recent downturn. It's not exactly helping either.

Either way, here is the updated down-the-stretch chart ... the Aeros could be in the playoffs as early as Wednesday when Rockford meets QC.

Go IceFlames!

Down the Stretch - Post Lake Erie Update

I really, really did not realize how much Krys Kolanos and Nolan Schaefer meant to this team.

Now we all know.

Nice stretch of hockey, eh? Home ice is out the window, so the Aeros' recent "crapped-their-pants" episode pretty much assures them one of three scenarios:

1) The lose all three remaining games, and either QC or Chicago pulls off the miracle to oust them.

2) They end up No. 3 and lose to Peoria in five or six games

3) They stay the No. 4 seed and give the Admirals a decent run for their money in the postseason.

(Note to No. 3 -- If you like thrilling AHL hockey, be sure to cheer for the Nashville Predators or anyone playing the Minnesota Wild.)

Enjoy the updated chart ... as you can see, Iowa was eliminated with their loss at San Antonio last night. Chicago is out with a loss at Milwaukee today and Quad City hosts Rockford next week, before wrapping up with a home and home against the Chops.

Down the Stretch - Magic Number still at four

Iowa and and Chicago are eliminated the next time they lose or the next time Houston wins. It's almost a sure thing. Quad City, however, is now just five points behind the Aeros and would only have the tie-breaker IF they win out and the Aeros lose out. That is why, for now, the magic number for the Aeros is four and not three.

The stumbling, bumbling Aeros can clinch a playoff tonight with a win tonight over Lake Erie and and QC loss to Peoria. I am pretty sure they clinch, too, with an OT point and a regulation loss by QC. Look at the chart below to see all the gory details ...

Either way, this is going to be way more interested than it needs to be thanks to a very rough schedule and poor timing on goalie injuries.

--Aeroscribe

Down the Stretch - Peoria Rivermen Pregame

It is becoming increasingly obvious that the Aeros are more likely going to finish fourth than they are second based on how well Peoria has been playing lately and how poorly the Aeros have been in the last week and a half.

I think tonight's game at Carver Arena will go a long way, especially if the Aeros can a) (obviously) win the game and then b) parlay that into a road sweep against the Lake Erie Monsters. The Aeros do have, technically, the weakest schedule as far as opponents are concerned from here on out. After tonight, the Aeros will play four straight teams who will not make the postseason. I think Peoria and Quad City have the roughest go of it from here on out, even though (as Fred implied several times Thursday) San Antonio may literally try to hurt the Aeros next weekend from start to finish. Their objective might be to collect more deadhead stickers than goals and victories, so who knows.

The chart (click on it for a clearer view) now shows that Iowa has moved ahead of Chicago, thanks to their win over the Aeros last night, and I have not moved Peoria ahead of Houston, but I will after tonight's loss. The Rivermen have the same amount of points, but three more wins, which gives them the tie breaker, even if the Aeros win the season series.

Down the Stretch - Iowa Chops Pregame

Last night, the Aeros did not get much help, but thanks to Peoria's win over Chicago, the Aeros magic number is down to four. Last month, I said it would be the Aeros, IceHogs and Wolves joining the Admirals in the playoffs. Now, it is almost certain that Peoria will be in with the defending champs (Wolves) on the outside looking in.


If the Aeros win two of three this weekend, I think that sets them up nicely for home ice in the first round against Peoria. Raise your hand, though, if you want to see the Aeros open up on the road against that monster Rivermen team right now. To be honest, I would rather see the Aeros slip to fourth than have to try to beat Manny Legace ... but we'll leave that to worry about next week. Those games against the Rampage will be huge.


Here is the updated down the stretch chart. Click on the pic for a clearer view.

Down the Stretch - Post Iowa Update

The Aeros played their last game in Des Moines tonight and absolutely crushed the Chops 6-2, scoring four unanswered goals down the stretch. Three shorties - albeit one was an EN - but are you kidding me? Raise your hand if you can figure this team out. Quoting Mr. T, "I pity the poor fools that try to use video and rational thinking to try to figure out the Aeros as an opponent."

This team is nuts, and I am done with predictions or even worrying about where they will end up or who they could play in the first round. It does not matter.

As for tonight, just look what they had to overcome ... Best goal scorer gone? Check. No. 1 and No. 2 goalies now hurt and/or extremely rusty? Check. Just when it looked like the team was destined for another letdown, the close out the roadie by scoring six goals in a building they might as well call home.

After tonight, the magic number for a playoff spot is down to six (and really it's five if you count tiebreakers). Click on the chart below to see a complete breakdown of the final two weeks.

Who to cheer for tomorrow?

Chicago over Peoria, Lake Erie over Rockford and Milwaukee over Quad City.

--Aeroscribe

Down the Stretch - Post Rockford Edition

What a lousy result tonight. From the sound of it, the Aeros outplayed the IceHogs with the exception of the first seven minutes of the second period. That let down cost them the game, even though Chicago losing got the team two points closer to the playoffs.

The Aeros will officially lose their last "game in hand" when they play at Iowa Tuesday, so they better make it count if they want to make a strong case for that last home-ice-in-the-first-round bid. Milwaukee wrapped up the other by clinching the division tonight, and right now, my money is on the Aeros to get the other if they can take care of Iowa next week. If not, things could get really interesting, especially with Rockford playing two games against the North Division.

The latest chart has been updated (click on it for a clearer view), and the color-coded system makes it crystal clear which team is slumping the most right now.

Let me throw this one out there ... Do you think the recent lackluster play by Corey Locke and Jesse Schultz might be a result of them sulking for not getting a late season look by Minnesota? I am not saying I think that personally, but I was just running down the scenarios of why they look so bad all of the sudden. Or I am missing that boat all together and they are just getting stopped by some good old fashioned opposing goalies?

--Aeroscribe

Down the Stretch - Rockford (3/29/09)

The rest of the field is only getting closer as the Aeros continue their weekend road sputter in Rockford today. With the exception of the Milwaukee game, the Aeros have not played three good periods in awhile. And it looks like the Milwaukee win has been cheapened by the way the Admirals look right now. They are in their worst slump since the start of the season.

Rockford is flying up from San Antonio today after losing there last night. The Aeros are playing four games in five days, but so are the IceHogs. I give the Aeros the edge is the scheduling deparment, but the IceHogs are going to take this game 4-2.

--Aeroscribe

Down the Stretch -- Cheer for San Antonio

Ordinarily, Aeros fans don't cheer for the Rampage, but they should tonight.

San Antonio is hot, but are flying home to host Rockford tonight. Those are going to be some really tired legs, so the Aeros better find a way to get a point in Peoria this evening.

Other teams to cheer for today? Quad City over Chicago and Milwaukee over Iowa.

I have updated the "down the stretch" chart with colors to better show wins, losses and OTLs.

Also, per the request of one of our loyal employees, I added a line that shows the magic points number for the top three teams as far as clinching a playoff berth is concerned. Remember to click on the chart to see a better view of it.

At this point, if the Aeros win five of their last nine games, they are in, even if the two teams below them win out. Enjoy!

Down the stretch update - Huge win in Milwaukee

Benoit Pouiliot was great. Max Noreau was great. Nolan Schaefer was great. Tony Hrkac was good and now gives the Aeros three, good and (as Kevin Constantine told me tonight) solid, responsible lines. The whole team was great in holding the Admirals to their lowest shots total of the year. Before tonight, Milwaukee had not lost back to back games in regulation since before Christmas. (Do you remember when it snowed in Houston? It was the week after that.) And those games were against a then very hot Grand Rapids Griffins team.

Here is the updated "down the stretch" chart (again, click on it to see a clearer/larger image). The Aeros got some help from the two bottom teams on this list ... wow, look out for that Quad City swan song!

--Aeroscribe

Down the stretech

This is one of the best playoffs races we've seen in the West, because this one is going down to the last weekend I think.

Six teams are battling for the last three playoff spots, although one of them, Quad City, is on life support. And if you take a look at the chart below (and I apologize for its low quality ... just click on it for a bigger version), they have one of the hardest schedules of any remaining team in contention. In my opinion, Iowa has the second toughest schedule, and I think the last three spots are going to come down to who plays their best hockey before, yes BEFORE April 4. Do you agree?

What do you think of this chart? Ask questions ... that is what we are all paid for here at The Third Intermission

--Aeroscribe