Inside the Numbers: What to Look For In Game Five

This may sound like a repeat, but the key to this game will be which team scores first. The Aeros are 6-1 in the playoffs when getting the first goal, and Milwaukee is 5-0. With the first period, the Aeros are 5-0, and the Admirals are 3-0. With the second period lead, the Aeros are 4-0 and Milwaukee is 4-0. But the strange number is this: the Aeros are 7-1 in games where they are either outshot or have the same number of shots as the opposition.

Aeros coach Kevin Constantine wants his team to be more aggressive in the Milwaukee end instead of sitting back and letting the Admirals pound away at Anton Khudobin all night. But Constantine admitted after the Game Four win that part of the Aeros lack of attack has come from scoring that first period goal and taking the lead. Milwaukee then increases its pressure in a kind of desperation, so the Aeros are forced back on defense.

That in turn helps to explain Milwaukee's 118-73 shot advantage over the Aeros, but then again, Milwaukee doesn't always have the chance to get off the best of shots, and the Aeros defense has been pretty solid in keeping them from getting close to Khudobin. That also partly explains the Aeros being held to 10 straight periods of seven shots or fewer on Milwaukee's goal.

Khudobin has currently shut out Milwaukee for 81:35. He's stopped 106 of Milwaukee's 111 shots at him, and he's stopped 269 of 292 shots he's faced in these playoffs.

Also, to repeat previous stats, the power play has been important for the Aeros. The Aeros are 13-for-39 on the power play in the playoffs, for third place among playoff teams. They have also stopped 51 of 56 opposition power plays, which is best in the AHL for the playoffs. When the Aeros score on the power play, they are 6-3, but in games where they have not allowed a power play goal, they are 7-1. The power play numbers are impressive, but Jeff Smith is the referee for this game, so it's highly possible that neither team will get a power play chance tonight as he's not known for calling lots of penalties.

The Aeros, all-time, are 7-9 in Game Fives, but they are 5-1 all-time in best-of-seven series when leading a series 3-1. The Admirals aren't so lucky. They are 11-26 all-time when facing elimination, including 11-16 in Game Fives (1-6 on the road).

The Aeros leading scorer is Corey Locke (5-6=11). Krys Kolanos (5-4=9), Matt Beaudoin (3-6=9),and Tony Hrkac (1-8=9) are next in line. Mike Santorelli is Milwaukee's leading scorer (4-4=8), and Cal O'Reilly is next (2-5=7). But the Admiral that needs to be stopped is former Aero Ryan Jones (4-2=6) who has scored three of Milwaukee's last five goals.

What can't be accounted for are the intangibles. Like how the teams react to Jeff Smith. Or if the heat, humidity, and soft ice continue to bother the Admirals. Reading the Milwaukee reactions after the games, it almost seems as if they've resigned themselves to losing this series by their reactions to the officiating and arena conditions. But based on the reactions of the Aeros I talked to this morning, they are fully expecting the Admirals to come out aggressively after the Aeros and attack the net, and if the Admirals score first, then all those thoughts of them having resigned themselves to losing are gone.

So those are the numbers. Make of them what you will. I predicted the Aeros to win in six, which means a trip back to Milwaukee. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Aeros end this tonight.