Can The Aeros Make It Three Series In A Row?

So as I'm waiting to talk to Kevin Constantine after the game last night, Barry Brust comes up to me and says that he's not going to be impressed with me unless I make it up to Winnipeg for a game with the Moose. I respond that if the team will cover my travel, I'll be glad to come. And everybody laughs, end of story.

I tell you this because I won't be in town this weekend. Not because I'm Winnipeg covering the team, but because I'm in Europe on a previously scheduled quick weekend jaunt to clear my head as I work on planning my future. And the money that this trip is costing will probably keep me from making any kind of trip to Winnipeg, even for a Game Seven, though, if it comes to that, I'll probably see what I can do in terms of cashing in some more of my frequent flyer miles.

But once again, that said, I'm hoping it doesn't come to a Game Seven.

Which brings me to the true reason for this post. I've got to go on the record and make my prediction for which team will win this series. The North Division champs, Manitoba Moose, or the West Division champs, the Houston Aeros. And frankly, everything points to the Moose winning this series.

After all, they finished in first in the North Division with 107 points. They beat the Aeros four times this season (once in shoot out). The Moose swept the Grand Rapids Griffins in the last round, and they've been resting for a week, preparing for either the Aeros or the Admirals.

And the Aeros are beat up. Anton Khudobin has played a lot of hockey in the net. Nolan Schaefer is available to play, but he's rusty after having not played for nearly five weeks before Monday night's debacle. Barry Brust is skating with the team, but it's been even longer since he played. Krys Kolanos is battling injuries. Tomas Mojzis didn't travel with the team to Milwaukee because of injuries. Jesse Schultz is with the team, but he's still not available to play. And the Aeros have played 14 games of physical, pounding, violent hockey.

This would be an easier prediction for me to make if I'd seen the Moose play recently. But the Aeros haven't faced them since December. And not having seen the Moose in the playoffs against Toronto or Grand Rapids, I'm just not sure of how they've really been tested.

I know this. One of the hottest goalies in the playoffs has been Manitoba's Corey Schneider. Schneider's 8-2 with only 17 goals allowed, having stopped 250 of 267 shots in 603 minutes of play for a 1.69 goals allowed average and a .936 save percentage. That's good. And Manitoba's got Jason Krog who is in the top 10 in AHL playoff scoring with 11 points (4-7=11). They've got the number one penalty kill in the playoffs, allowing only three goals on 33 power play attempts. Their power play is only so-so, ranking just sixth while scoring on 10 of 53 power plays.

Then there are the Aeros. Anton Khudobin has had a rough week. He shut the Admirals out last Thursday for his birthday. He barely made it midway through the second period on Saturday, and he was pulled in the first period on Monday before rebounding with a very good effort last night. And the Aeros have some of the AHL's leading playoff scorers, led by Corey Locke with 15 points (9-6=15), Krys Kolanos (6-5=11), Matt Beaudoin (3-7=10), and Tony Hrkac (1-9=10). The Aeros penalty kill is ranked right behind Manitoba's, as the team's stopped 62 of 69 opposition power plays, and they've scored on 17 of 69 power plays.

So who's going to win?

That's what I'm struggling with. The Aeros should lose this series. They should lose it easily. They're tired. They're banged up. They're facing a rested team. They're facing a hot goalie. But then again, what's new. To get to this spot, the Aeros had to get past Manny Legace and Drew MacIntyre, two of the best and hottest goalies going in the AHL. And the Aeros bested them. Milwaukee was rested. And the Aeros just fought on.

I felt sure the Aeros would defeat Milwaukee because I was in the locker room after Game Seven in Peoria and I just saw this thing about Krys Kolanos that said he wasn't finished yet. That he had a point to make.

I didn't see that Wednesday night, mainly because Kolanos went straight from the ice to an exercise bike. But there was something about the guys in the locker room. They were happy. They were celebrating. But it wasn't like with Peoria, where they were shocked that they could do this. This time, they expected it.

Corey Locke told me after the game that these guys are fast learners, and that they'd taken the lessons from Peoria and applied them to Milwaukee. About how to try and grab some rest when tired. About how to prepare for the same opponent time and time again. About how to handle a hot goalie. About how to handle a Game Seven. Against Milwaukee, the Aeros had to deal with injuries, a hot goalie, blowing a 3-1 series lead. They've learned their lessons Locke said. They're quick studies.

What they are, I think, what they've learned, if possible, is confidence. They learned that they weren't lucky in beating Peoria. They were good. They weren't lucky in getting that lead against Milwaukee, they were good. They learned that if they play Kevin Constantine's system, good things will happen. They've learned if things get tight, that they can handle the pressure.

The Aeros shouldn't win this series against Manitoba. They probably won't, but...

That's what people said about the Houston Astros in 2005. That they were a worn down Wild Card who wouldn't get past the Atlanta Braves. That's what people said about the Arizona Cardinals this past football season. It's something we see every year, in every sport, in every playoffs. An underdog team gets hot. The team starts playing with confidence. The team starts beating those teams they're not supposed to beat.

Corey Locke says they've learned their lessons. I think they have. But most importantly, I think that the Aeros are THAT team in this year's Calder Cup chase. That team that gets hot at just the right time, that starts believing that anything possible. The Aeros might be hurt. The Aeros might be tired. But something tells me that's not going to matter. That the Aeros aren't going to let that matter.

So here it is. The Aeros find away to win another series. And I'm picking this just on the basis of my intuition because the numbers say the Aeros should lose. But the numbers have been saying the Aeros should have lost since the playoffs started. Every year there's that underdog team. And this year, it's the Aeros.

I say they beat Manitoba in six, even though that means Barry Brust won't be impressed because I'm not there.

(I won't be around this weekend. You're just going to have to settle for the T3I crew. I'll be back Monday, but not in time for the morning skate, so you're going to have to do without my observations. But I'll be at the game, and I'll report after.)