If every team in the West maintained its points percentage through the end of the season, the Aeros would be on the outside looking in. They would end up sixth in the division, and the crossover rule would not apply to them. The top five playoffs teams, in order, would be: Peoria, Milwaukee, Texas, San Antonio and Oklahoma City.
The Barons would move over to the North and would play Hamilton or Manitoba.
But I don't think everyone will maintain the same winning percentage. Houston has been trending up, San Antonio has been trending down and everyone has schedule quirks that will probably affect how things shake down.
(Example? Sure ... Based on my math, the Aeros would be scratched out by OKC by two points. The two teams have four games left, three of which that are in Houston and are played on consecutive days. Say the Aeros win three of those four games or all of the ones played in Houston. See how things can change?)
The only locks that I really see at this point are Peoria and Milwaukee. And the only team that I don't think will be able to keep up is Rockford.
I think schedule will play a big role in who gets invited to the dance. Milwaukee, for example, has a whopping 21 games left at home. They are 12-3-2-2 at Bradley Center and could be the favorite to win the division for that reason.
San Antonio has just 15 home games left and is just 12-9-2-0 on the road. They start their big rodeo trip after the All-star break, so we're about to find out how good that team really is. Oklahoma City, too, has just 15 home games compared to 17 on the road, but they are a much better team away from the Cox Convention center. They are 15-7-0-1 on the road.
The Aeros have one of the best home records in the division at 13-6-1-1 and have 18 of their remaining 30 games at Toyota Center (remember one will be in St. Paul). Chicago will play a majority of its remaining games at home, but the Wolves are just 11-9-0-3 at Allstate Arena. Both Texas and Peoria are equally good at home on the road, so they seem less affected by the remaining balance of their schedule.
Like a commenter said earlier, the Aeros need to step up their power play and tighten up the PK on the road. If both of those things happen, coupled with continued good fortune at home, I think we'll be seeing some playoff hockey come April.
While it is too early to start making predictions, it's definitely time to start scoreboard watching. The Aeros biggest roadblocks to the post season appear to be San Antonio, Texas and Oklahoma City.
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