Some other good news is that most of the teams in the West, since Feb. 21, have not gained much ground on the Aeros (eight points since then). Chicago has moved the most with 12 points in that span, while San Antonio and OKC continue to spin their wheels.
In the short term, I expect the Rampage to reverse that trend. I think OKC, Texas and Peoria will slip in the division over the next couple of weeks. And depending on how the Aeros do this weekend against Manitoba, they may slip down to third after this weekend's action. We'll see.
I think if the Aeros can go at least 7-6 in their last 13 games, they'll squeeze in. They are battling huge injuries and call-ups right now, and they are playing teams that are not having to deal with those. The next six games are very, very crucial.
Below is my West division playoff picture, and here is a link to the marvelous playoff primer that the AHL has been putting out there this week. Good stuff all around.
Click on the image to get a better view:
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4 comments:
The fifth place team in the West *will* make the playoffs. Take a look at my analysis here for more information on why I think so:
http://hundreddegreehockey.blogspot.com/2011/03/west-division-playoff-race-update.html
Stephen,
I read this story, and want to say that I really, really enjoy your blog. Obviously, I am a biased, but I think you have the second-best blog in the division!
Regarding your work ... it is very good, and i like the way you broke it down. Sounds like you are pretty confident in your stand that five teams will make the playoffs from the west ... the one thing that bothers me is that this assumes that all teams continue to play at the same pace.
I just don't see how that is possible with the way Chicago's schedule is very easy, Peoria's roster is severely depleted (as is Houston's) and OKC has a crazy-tough schedule the rest of the way.
I think Houston, Peoria and OKC will play below their season average at this point, and I think San Antonio and Chicago will play well above.
I also see Milwaukee and Texas staying at about the same pace.
Here is my predicted order of finish:
MKE, SAT, CHI, TEX, HOU, PEO, OKC, RFD
And I am still not completely sold that five teams from the West will get in.
The rate of play staying the same is definitely my big assumption. If you look at my playoff projection page, you can see the value I call "R% diff". I think it's a good indicator of how much better you have to play if you're behind. Check out the spreadsheet here:
http://hundreddegreehockey.blogspot.com/p/playoff-projections.html
It's interesting that you think Chicago will sneak into the playoffs. They do have two games against Rockford, but I think they are just as tough as the rest of the division. It's a pretty crazy scene.
I think they will get in based on their offense seems to score just enough goals, AND they have SEVEN games left against Peoria, Rockford, OKC and Peoria.
Those teams are are either bad or severely banged up for the home stretch.
I think they will get in, but I'd never bet the farm on it. It's going to be a great month of scoreboard watching, that is for sure.
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