Houston Aeros 1994-2013: Thank you for all the great memories and two decades of great hockey and entertainment.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

My Fearless Playoff Predictions

Are you ready for some Calder Cup hockey? Are you still shocked the Aeros made it in at the very last moment? With the playoffs starting tomorrow, I thought I would throw out some Western Conference playoff predictions. So, here goes...

1.  I see Chicago taking out San Antonio in a sweep. The Wolves have been a steady team this season, and I just think they're more talented than the Rampage.

2.  Abbotsford takes out Milwaukee in four games. Except for Jeremy Smith, I'm not sold on the Admirals. Plus, I'll always pick a team coached by former Aeros coaches (Troy Ward's the head coach and Luke Strand's a assistant and both were assistants here to Kevin Constantine). Plus, the Heat have Krys Kolanos.

3.  Toronto sweeps Rochester. I haven't really seen these teams as often as I've seen the others, so I'm just basing this on the records.

4. And for the one all Aeros fans care about, I'm seeing the Barons taking out the Aeros in four games. I don't think the Aeros have the offensive talent of the Barons, and the Barons have the psychological advantage, having lost only one game in this season's series. But I do think the Barons will be a bit rusty, and Matt Hackett can keep the Aeros in every game. I think the Aeros win one of the two in Houston before losing the series in Oklahoma City. I could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong, because nothing's more fun than covering a team on the roll in the playoffs.


Forecheck said...

"1. I see Chicago taking out San Antonio in a sweep." I disagree. Chicago will win, but it will take four or five.

"2.Abbotsford takes out Milwaukee in four games". Wrong again, John. Upset. Milwaukee in five.

"3. Toronto sweeps Rochester." Hmmm... we actually agree on this one.

"I'm seeing the Barons taking out the Aeros in four games." And , unfortunately, we agree here.

A little statistics shows the daunting task the Aeros have. If you take a 1-in-8 winning percentage against OKC for the Aeros as representative of their playoff chances, the chances of the Aeros winning a best of five series against the Barons is 1.6% (you can calculate this easily in Excel using the BINOMDIST function). The chances of the Aeros sweeping the Barons is just 0.2% (rounded up), while the most likely result is a Barons sweep at 67%.

Now, the Aeros haven't had Hackett in net for six of those, but they did have Wellman for a couple. The games were usually close, but the disparity in talent between the two teams is huge. I'll cut the guys a break and say the go down in four, not three.

Winning the first game is critical for the Aeros, in fact I would dare say required.

So enjoy your two games of Extra Hockey at the Toy Box, just don't get bent out of shape at the score.

ICEVET said...

For those members of the sports media class and ardent hockey fans who find entertainment in post-season playoff predictions, I would suggest that you tune into the venerable Tim Leone at The Patriot-News (central Pennsylvannia publisher) who closely follows the vintage Hershey Bears program.

His "2012 Calder Cup predictions" (including each playoff round) were released early this week and reprinted at blog.pennlive.com.

His Final Series prediction? You might NOT have guessed....the Oklahoma City Barrons (over the Bridgeport Sound Tigers in 5).

BTW, Mr. Leone failed to predict the 2011 Winner, the cinderella Binghamton Baby-Sens.

Enjoy the Game.

Forecheck said...

Strange since the NorAds have 115 points this year, approaching what the Aeros did in 98-99 in 82 games.

Anonymous said...

I'll listen on the radio and not waste money on a playoff ticket.

Forecheck said...

Good choice, Anon. But it wasn't worth the money you spent on electricity or batteries to listen to it.