Game Day - Aeros vs. Grand Rapids Griffins

Two weeks ago, the Aeros would have been heavily favored against the Grand Rapids Griffins. Four wins in four tries against their long time rivals is a perfect case in point as to which was the better team overall. They even scored 10 goals in two games against them at Van Andel Arena in the second and third games of the 11-game roadie. 

But, as we all know, things change a lot in two weeks. And when you're the affiliate of the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild, injuries happen so fast your head spins and you literally do not know who the goalie is. (True story ... that has happened to me a couple of times recently)

Now the Griffins have the better goalie (Ty Conkin has been a monster since getting sent down from Detroit) and are slightly favored tonight because this is the Aeros first home game in more than a month. Typically these games are more difficult to win because it truly is like another road game. 

Both teams are desperate for points; the Aeros simply have not played that many games in the last three weeks and the Griffins are still in 12th place and are six points behind the Aeros. They need to sweep just to get back in it. 

I think your local T3I pundits have written off the playoffs for the Aeros. Heather said it best the other day; just enjoy the hockey season that remains. Cheer for the guys that are still here and the effort they give to  make things interesting. Aeros fans are lucky to get a TON of home games in the last five weeks. Playoffs, though, are not an impossibility, but the wall just keeps getting higher and the circumstances crazier. 

If the Aeros sneak into a first round matchup against Toronto or OKC, Torchetti and captain DiSalvatore should garner some consideration for coach and player of the year. 

As of right now, the Aeros are back to 9th and are on the outside looking in. They have games in hand and a favorable schedule, but their goaltending situation is perilous. Fallon and Keetley have allowed 10 goals in 123 minutes of hockey, and their combined saves percentage is ... well, I am going to spare you of that information so you can claim ignorant bliss when you show up at the game tonight. 

Please click on the image for a larger view of the information. 

Empty Net and other Wild Problems

Well, the gong show in Minnesota just got gongier. Despite eeking out a shootout win last night in Phoenix, the Wild's season of "hey, it can't get worse!" just can't seem to find the bottom of the rabbit hole.

Principal among the issues is that Matt Hackett is the only healthy, NHL-contracted goalie in the entire organization. Backstrom is out another 2-3 weeks (at least). Kuemper is out with an upper body injury from the San Antonio game that, Russo is reporting via the Wild, could have him out the rest of the season. He's flying up to Minnesota to get checked out by the Wild's doctors, so that sounds pretty serious.

And then, last night, Harding tweaked something lower body (degree of seriousness is unknown thus far), leaving Hackett at the helm of this wayward ship, which he seems pretty jacked about. I'd be crapping my pants, but that's why he's in the NHL and I'm in Women's League.

Not having seen the Aeros 7-6 SO win and 4-1 loss to Abbotsford this week, I don't want to judge the goaltending of Joe Fallon and Matt Keetley sight unseen, but I think we can all agree that letting in 4 or 6 goals a game isn't exactly paving your own path to the playoffs, regardless of the cause (bad team, bad goalie, whatever... it just can't continue).

And that's just the goalie problems. Clutterbuck appears to be out with a vague "feeling unwell" which of course means he almost certainly has a concussion, though nobody wants to say it. Either that or mono. Either way, he's probably out for a while. Guys are sick left and right. Holy moley. 

Personally, I'm skipping right over the Panic button. Panic implies there's something that can be done. I'm pressing the Resignation button instead, where I'll just be grateful for some wins (from either team) and embrace whatever hockey I can get while the gettin' is still good.

Per Russo, Wild GM Chuck Fletcher is looking for a goalie, but that's really just to back Hackett up. Down here, I suspect what we have is what we get until something changes. And maybe Harding isn't as dinged up as it seems, but really, what are the odds?

Anyway, my offer of my goaltending services stand, Mr. Fletcher and Mr. Mill. I'm absolutely awful at it but I'll probably be too nervous to leer at your players in the locker room. My knees are feeling pretty good lately, though, and I'd get a kickass story out of it.

And I could say stuff like, "When I played for the Aeros..."

That's all for now. SEE YOU tomorrow night! I don't even care who is on the ice now. I'll just be damned happy to be back at the rink.

Weekly Power Rankings: Marlies no smoke and mirrors

(Please note that I did these BEFORE the Aeros played at Abbotsford on Tuesday ... These reflect games played, records and standings of all teams before Tuesday's games. Thanks.)

The Toronto Marlies have been firmly entrenched behind the OKC Barons in the Weekly Power Rankings. But all of that could change in the coming week to 10 days as the schedule lightens up and strongly favors our neighbors to the North.

Ryan Hamilton is a big reason why the Marlies could
end up as the No. 1 seed

In their last 17 games, the high-scoring Marlies (174 goals for, second only to PEO) will play Hamilton three times; Grand Rapids four times, Lake Erie twice and Texas and Binghamton once. That is 11 games against teams that are probably not going to make the playoffs. Unfortunately for Aeros fans, the OKC Barons have a similar schedule against the have-nots and has-beens, so the No. 1 seed is going to come down to which team takes care of business.

This week, there was, as expected, not a lot of movement at the top. Abbotsford got back on track recently, and I think Milwaukee is close to putting together a nice little winning streak. We'll soon find out if the moves in Nashville stabilized what is going on in Beer town.

The Aeros and Chicago are the only contenders that fell back this week, but even the Wolves saved face with a dominant 4-1 win over OKC. The Wolves scored goals just 7 seconds apart early in the second period to break open the game and chase David LeNeveu out of the game.

I attended that game, and it is kind of eerie how similar it is every time I go to Rosemont. Same pre-game, same Anthem, same PA guy, same music, same dominant team ... it was like 2002 all over again.

The Aeros are a mess right now, and they've got two games left on their road trip before coming home for the first time in more than a month. We'll see if they can put things together long enough to move back into the playoff chase.

2011-12 Western Conference Power Rankings
Edition 6, March 5, 2012

  

PR	Team	Record	Streak	Last	+/-	For the record …
1	OKC	35-17-2-4	0-3	0-2-0-1	-	Looked lost in loss at CHI Sun.
2	TOR	32-20-4-3	0-2	1-1-0-1	-	Very soft schedule coming up
3	CHA	31-19-3-5	0-3	0-0-1-1	-	Keep on losing in OT
4	SAT	32-23-2-1	2-0	2-0-0-0	-	Minus-9 goal differential
5	ABB	31-22-3-2	0-1	2-1-0-0	+3	Huge next 4 vs. HOU and PEO.
6	CHI	31-22-2-3	1-0	1-2-0-0	-1	5 of next 8 on the road
7	MIL	30-23-2-2	1-0	2-1-0-0	+2	This is a playoff team
8	PEO	31-26-2-1	0-1	1-2-0-0	-1	Two regulation wins since 2/15
9	HOU	26-18-3-9	0-1	0-1-0-0	-3	Games in hand on everyone
10	LEM	30-25-2-3	3-0	3-0-0-0	+1	It’s like a light came on
11	RCH	28-22-6-3	2-0	2-1-0-0	-1	Back in the hunt … somehow
12	RFD	26-26-2-5	2-0	2-0-0-1	+1	Points in six straight … wow.
13	GRR	25-22-5-4	0-1	2-1-0-0	-1	Losing key players to Detroit
14	HAM	26-26-1-5	1-0	1-1-0-1	-	Doing enough to stay at .500
15	TEX	25-28-2-2	1-0	1-1-0-0	-	Only sub .500 team in the West

As the kids say ... OMFG

Well it is official.
Now we know why the Aeros made it all the way to the finals and were so stunned to lose to the Senators last year. They sold their asses to the devil to get it done. Now they have to pay the reaper.

In a season that is really happening in case you were wondering, Darcy Kuemper is the latest to succumb to the injury bug. The Aeros have subsequently pulled former Heat player Matt Keeltley out of the ECHL to assist Jimmy ... er, Joe Fallon this week in Abbotsford.

Also posted was the Aeros' clear day roster Tuesday, and there are no fewer than five players on that roster right now that won't be playing for the team anytime soon. And that doesn't count Jeff Penner and Jarod Palmer, but of whom could see playing time this week after long term injuries.

Jim Mill was not able to get any help from the rest of the league to shore up some of these question marks. I talked to him the other day about it and his honest comment was, "I'm always trying to make us better, but I am not sure what else I can do."

He's right ... you can't do anything with a roster full of glass. Everyone is broken, and all the assets are getting paid to rehab or help the Wild gong show up in St. Paul. But again folks ... that is why the Aeros exist. It has been a great development year for a lot of players, and next year (Mayan prophesies notwithstanding) looks to be a lot of fun waiting to happen.

Well, enjoy another three-loss week. I'd like to think they could split these four games, but the players have really accepted the reality of what this season has become. And for once, I don't blame them in the very least.

Aeros fall to 10th in overall standings

Lake Erie has won three straight, and Rochester is hot, so the recently idle Aeros are now on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

Their saving grace right now is the games in hand, and it looks like Jarod Palmer is close(r) to playing again.

I had a nice, somewhat candid chat with a former player recently, and he had some interesting comments about what is going on with the team right now. I hate, hate, hate to do this, but he only agreed to talk if I kept his name off the blog. I am not a big fan of using anonymous sources, but I kind of feel like that was necessary to get the point across.

I am not going to print his quotes word for word, but he said he felt sorry for the veteran players like DiSavaltore and Taffe, who have to come to the rink not knowing there will be enough players on the ice each night.

He did say that injures are a big part of how and why teams make the playoffs, but playing with 16, 17 players more than twice in a season, much less a week, is utterly unacceptable.

I am going to try to get a comment from Jim Mill about his to see what he has to say.

My opinion is this; two more callups from the ECHL is not the difference between the Aeros losing those games at Abbotsford and San Antonio ... But the fact that the team was not prepared - especially given the recent history with the Wild players dropping like flies - is more of an issue that anything.

What say you? I think some of you have already expressed your opinion, but if you have not ... fire away.
Also: do you think the Aeros are going to make the playoffs? Why or why not?

Please click on the picture to see a bigger/better view. 

DiSalvatore becomes Aeros' all-time AHL leading scorer

Mark Freer's million goals as an Aeros will never be broken. He played for the Aeros from 1994-2000 and leads the Aeros in just about every offensive category imaginable. But that was the IHL days when players stayed with their teams longer.

So when Jon DiSavaltore scored his 20th goal of the season in Saturday's sad-sack 2-1 loss to the Rampage, he became the organization's all-time leading goal scorer - during the AHL era. His 69 goals sent him past Kirby Law in that category, and DiSalvatore is on pace to break his career high of 28 set just last year.

So a huge congrats go out to Jon DiSalvatore, who is more known for another record as a head coach killer (kidding, Sal). But seriously, the dude has played nine AHL season and has at least 20 goals in every one of those season. And he's played for a different head coach ever single season. To, me, that is just freaking amazing.

But I digress ...

Big picture wise, the Aeros did not lose any ground after their sub-par effort, playing with just 17 skaters and looking lost for two periods. But after the games today, the Aeros will officially be out of the Top 8 for the first time this season. The only way they can hold on to that is if Toronto and Charlotte both pick up wins. If either Lake Erie or Rochester wins today, the Aeros are on the outside looking in .

But don't get too discouraged. I think the Aeros will eventually get out of this funk, and they are just three points out of fourth place. They have every opportunity to still get the last home-ice spot in the Western Conference, even though getting the No. 5 seed against either San Antonio or Abbotsford wouldn't be all that bad.

But the Aeros need to get Rau back, and they need some lineup stability. It is embarrassing, to me at least, that they keep having to play with a short bench. It's not working, and they are hemorrhaging points because of the chaos in the Twin Cities.

So here is a look at the big picture. Enjoy.

Please click on the image for a clearer view. 

Idle Aeros fall to 8th, back at it tonight

The good news? The Aeros have games in hand on just about everyone and play a vast majority of their games at home the rest of the way. They also still only have 17 regulation losses on the year. They have a great coaching staff ,and the players refuse to quit.

And for the bad news? Well, let's use bullet points because those are fun:

• The Aeros are in 8th place and have fewer wins than just about everyone
• Abbotsford and San Antonio have passed them in the division stadings
• The Peoria Rivermen are about to add Patrick O'Sullivan to their roster
• Matt Hackett is not coming back anytime soon
• The Abbotsford Heat are cooking again with Krys Kolanos
• The Wild continue to be a factory of sadness in St. Paul. 
• Two more Wild forwards got hurt in Friday's 6-0 (lol!) loss to Detroit

I don't know what else to say; the Aeros have a pretty big hill to climb from here on out. But, they have a enough games (against the right teams) to do it. As for the Rivermen trade, I can't really figure out why they move Brett Sterling for Patrick O'Sullivan. 

It's about a wash scoring wise, and maybe both teams are just trying to (really) shake things up. 

Below is the updated standings and playoff picture. Enjoy!
And here is an update: The AHL (ahl.com) has an enhanced and far more useful playoff primer for the rest of the 2012 season. Here is a quick link to that. 

Please click on the image to see a bigger file. 

Backstrom taken down in Montreal; bye-bye Hackett

To me, it looked like he got shot. Less than three minutes into the Wild's game at Montreal Thursday, the Aeros playoff chances went from good to "well, let's see how the rookie does." Niklas Backstrom suffered an apparent lower body injury, and Mike Russo of the Star-Tribune is saying that this could be a (very) long term injury for the veteran goalie.

Montreal scores before taking out the visiting goalie, too.
Canadiens win 5-4 in the shootout. 

As of now, still no news on what exactly happened, but Backstrom is not going to be playing hockey any time soon. Hackett will be recalled later today, and the Aeros will have to roll with Darcy Kuemper and a yet-to-be-determined backup.

I sure hope Jim Mill knows of a decent goalie with AHL experience. The Aeros cannot afford to just give away points at any point for the rest of the season.

Also, did Heather fall off the map? I thought she would be all over this story. We need her to tell Aeros fans why they should not be worried about having Kuemper carry the load for the duration. As for me, I'm worried. The rookie has played just three games since Feb. 1.


Well, guess what? He's well rested. (WE FOUND HER ... WE FOUND HER!!!)

Oh, well ... that is enough good news from Mr. Sunshine. The Aeros have had all week to get ready for their game against the Rampage tomorrow night. No excuses either; San Antonio will be playing at home for the first time in 11 games ... advantage visitors, and shame on them if they don't take the favorable schedule.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Quick updates

The light at the end of the tunnel is finally visible. In just a hair over a week, our long nightmare of more than a month without live hockey will be over.

But there may be some changes by the time that rolls around. The big one is that Nik Backstrom was injured last night in the game against Montreal (which was one of the craziest regular season games I've ever seen and I even missed a good chunk of it because I'd given up when the Wild were down 3-1).

They haven't said what the injury is exactly but the rumblings make it sound like it's not going to be a quick return, and Matt Hackett has been called up to the team, playing in Detroit tonight. So, it sounds like the Aeros may be relying on Kuemper for a good stretch here, and Rob Nolan maybe gets back up to the AHL for a stretch again to back him up.

Also, if you missed the game last night, Matt Kassian scored his first NHL goal against Carey Price.

And his second.

He scored the first goal for the Wild and then the second later in the game, which started a comeback that led to a tie and a shootout (loss, unfortunately). So congrats to him on hitting that milestone the same way he hits everything else: Hard.

A couple other roster notes: recent acquisition Benn Olson was loaned to ECHL Ontario and Jamie Fritsch was released from his PTO.

That's all for now. One game this weekend in San Antonio and then it's off to Abbotsford for a couple before the big homecoming next weekend.

Down the Stretch, 2012 Edition

For the first time this season, two members of the Wild/Aeros organization used the word "if" when talking Aeros and the playoffs.

I am rather confident that these two think the team will get a chance at the cup, but the word "when" was replaced with "if" during two recent conversations.

To be sure, the Aeros recent slide can be attributed to injuries with the Wild and the team constantly having to play with a short bench and many ECHL call-ups. But John Torchetti has kept this team alive, and the Aeros are mostly intact for the stretch run.

Last night the Aeros fell from fifth to seventh because the Heat and Rampage both won road games. The Aeros have three more games on the trip, and they need at least one more win for it to be a respectable trip. Two wins would be real good, and winning all three would be a  nice surprise.

This graphic will evolve as we get closer to April.  I will link to Hundred Degree Hockey's playoff projections. He actually uses maths to determine which teams will not only make the playoffs, but which teams will be seeded where. My chart just gives you an overview of who plays where and how they perform during the last 20 or so games of the season.

Enjoy, and feedback is always appreciated.

Please click on picture for a larger/clearer view of the standings.