View from the Press Box - Aeros take 1-0 lead against Peoria

I can just about promise you that Dean Arsene won't be minus-2 on Friday, and Graham Mink REALLY wants that stupid penalty back that he took right in front of the referee with the game tied 1-1.

Earl's goal started a series of events that led to a dominating win over the Peoria Rivermen, who will have to win four of the next six games to beat the Aeros in the playoffs for the first time.

The Aeros won the game 4-1 and lead the series 1-0 because of timely goals and the ability to respond when maybe they didn't have close to the kind of start they really needed. But, as they did so many times later in the year, they fought back, rebounded after Cracknell's goal just 76 seconds in, and dominated the game.

The Gillies, Peters, Ortmeyer line was beautiful tonight. Hackett rebounded nicely after allowing the early score, and the Aeros kept the Rivermen off the board by sending them to the penalty box time and time again. If you want to know how to beat Peoria, this is the game you want to play.

Sure, the Aeros were far from perfect. The Rivermen have a great penalty kill and after Earl scored, the Aeros got off just three shots on their remaining five power plays.

The Aeros have won six straight series in which they have won the first game, and they improved to 17-10 all time in Game 1s. They are 12-3 in such games at home and are 2-0 against Peoria in Game 1s at Toyota Center.

The Aeros better be ready for an all out blitz on Friday. Peoria knows that going home down 2-0 pretty much means they are going to have to win all three of their home games. While such a feat is not unprecedented, it is not likely.

Fans, you saw a great hockey game Wednesday night. It would be most enjoyable to see it repeated in less than 48 hours.

Aeros vs. Rivermen - Head to Head

Here is a quick look at some head to head statistics that might give you an idea of which team is strong in what department. The one glaring area where the Aeros trail is both playoff experience and Calder Cup experience. Peoria has three key players with AHL Cups: Graham Mink, Dean Arsene and Nathan Oystrick.

Overall Record
Edge, Aeros (46-28-1-5) over Peoria (42-30-3-5)

Home Record
Edge, Aeros (21-16-0-3) over Peoria (20-16-2-2)

Road Record
Edge, Peoria (22-14-1-3) over Houston (21-16-0-3)

Goals For
Edge, Aeros (240) over Peoria (223)

Goals Against
Edge, Aeros (212) over Peoria (218)

Power Play
Edge, Aeros (20.2 percent) over Peoria (19.5 percent)

Penalty Kill
Edge, Peoria (84.8 percent) over Aeros (81.0 percent)

Penalty Minutes
Edge, Aeros (16.1/game) over Peoria (20.1/game)

Record in one-goal games
Edge, Aeros (21-8-1-5) over Peoria (19-7-3-5)

Predictions for this series
Heather Galindo, Pro Hockey News/T3I - Rivermen in six
Andrew Ferraro, Houston Chronicle/T3I - Aeros in seven
Patrick Williams, The Hockey News - Rivermen in seven
Dave Eminian, The Peoria Journal-Star - Aeros in six or seven
Shaun Bill, Pro Hockey News - Rivermen in five
John Royal, The Houston Press/T3I - Aeros in six

Only one of us predicted a series shorter than six games, but that is exactly what is going to happen if one of these two teams gets down in a 2-0 hole. That three in three looming next week pretty much guarantees a six or seven game series if these guys split this week at Toyota Center.

Ultimately, I think the Aeros have the upper hand because of their depth at forward and a confidence that I have seen in no Aeros team since 1999. Even the 2003 team had a few glaring holes and the Wild even made their big playoff run that year. Guys like Ortmeyer and DiSalvatore and Noreau seem to be hungry. Players like Robbie Earl and Chad Rau are just getting better all the time. And, with the return of Jared Spurgeon and Marco Scandella, this team is solid on the blueline.

This is going to be a great series, but neither team should be able to dominate because of the unfortunate scheduling in Peoria.

Letter from Dave Andrews - No more four games in five nights

You can read the letter here, but good news for AHL fans.
No more four games in five nights, as next year's AHL schedule will be reduced by four games to 76 regular season games.

This is a tremendous development, a positive thing for EVERYONE (players, fans, coaches and bloggers).

The AHL regular season schedule will last a week longer, and the first round of the playoffs will be reduced to a best of five.

The only potential negative with the latter is the formatting of that five game series. To save money like the ECHL does, we might see a 2-3 format, which benefits the lower seeded team. That will all be hashed out later, though.

Here here to the AHL for getting this right!
We'll try to get some comments on this from Mike Yeo after Game 1 tonight.

The Playoffs Begin; Game 1 tonight at Toyota Center

NOTE - now updated with Game 1 notes (scroll to bottom) from www.theahl.com

This first-round series is about two really good teams with a chance to go all the way in 2011.
Peoria was built to win and win big. As the year wore on the Aeros added to an already talented roster and found two pieces (Ortmeyer and O'Sullivan) that make them one of the most dangerous teams in the postseason.

The Rivermen started hot, and limped in to the playoffs. They did earn their way in, but they were under .500 in their last 40 games. The Aeros have been on fire since New Year's Day. They have the momentum, and for now the health and depth to get this done.

To me, the wild cards are the two rookie goalies. Jake Allen was amazing up until the New Year. He'll get the bulk of the playing time with Brontosaurus Ben Bishop out. For the Aeros, Anton carried the load until traded, and now Matt Hackett is the No. 1 goalie in H-town.

I hope you will take a look at and comment on my two stories on chron.com today. The advance story looks a bit deeper at the two teams and has some decent quotes from Ortmeyer (John used some of the same for his piece yesterday). The matchups article breaks down the basics, and I even provide for you a prediction: Aeros in seven games.

Big picture wise, I cannot recall a year where so many teams have a good case for going all the way. Just out of the West alone, Milwaukee, Houston, OKC and Lake Erie will be interesting to watch. On the right coast, Charlotte, Wilkes-Barre and Hershey will make some noise too.

And in the NHL; wow. Anaheim/Nashville will be fun. Even Chicago/Vancouver will be a bit more interesting than it looks on paper. Look for the Red Wings to go down in Round 1, and out East? Will Washington choke again? Are the Bruins for real this time? Will Tampa Bay do some damage?

No matter how you look at it or who you cheer for, the next nine weeks or so are going to be absolutely fantastic!

Aeros vs. Peoria; Game 1 notes

Game 1 – Peoria at Houston, 7:05 p.m. - Toyota Center
Both back in the Calder Cup Playoffs after missing out in 2010, second-place Houston and third-place Peoria kick off their West Division semifinal tonight at Toyota Center… These teams are meeting in the first round for the third time in the last six years, with the Aeros prevailing in a four-game sweep (2006) and a seven-game marathon (2009)… Houston was just 2-5-1-0 through its first eight games of the 2010-11 season but collected points in nine of its next 10 outings (7-1-0-2) to climb into playoff contention for good… Aeros captain and former Rivermen forward Jon DiSalvatore led the team in goals (28) and points (61) while playing all 80 games; DiSalvatore’s career-high 28 goals marked the eighth consecutive season in which he scored at least 20… Former AHL rookie of the year Patrick O’Sullivan led the entire AHL in scoring after the All-Star break with 41 points (16-25-41) in 29 games… Houston rookie goaltender Matt Hackett, who assumed the bulk of the workload after Anton Khudobin was dealt to the Boston organization at the NHL trade deadline, finished 23-16-4 (2.37, .916) in 45 appearances overall and went 8-3-0 in his last 11 outings down the stretch… Peoria posted a 4-1-1-0 mark in April to secure a playoff spot and climb to third place in the West… Three-time AHL All-Star T.J. Hensick paced the Rivermen with 69 points (21-48-69) despite playing only 59 AHL games in between NHL recalls to the St. Louis Blues… Graham Mink, who netted a team-best 24 goals (24-26-50), is a two-time Calder Cup champion (2006, 2009) with the Hershey Bears… Peoria forward Nicholas Drazenovic closed the regular seasons by scoring a goal in three straight games (3-1-4) and six of his last eight (7-1-8)… The Rivermen finished in the AHL’s top 10 in both power play efficiency (19.5 percent – eighth) and penalty-killing efficiency (84.8 percent – sixth).

My Fearless Prediction: Aeros in Six

So I should probably do one of those preview, prediction things for the playoff series starting tomorrow. I hate writing those things, but what the hell, right?

For those interested, I think the lines will look like this.

1. Almond, DiSalvatore, O'Sullivan.
2. Wellman, Earl, Rau.
3. Gillies, Ortmeyer, Peters.
4. Palmer, McMillan, Kassian.

Defense.

1. Noreau, Bagnall.
2. Spurgeon, Falk.
3. Prosser, Scandella.

But I reserve the right to be very wrong about all of that.

I'm sensing this gloom and doom from the fandom, and I can't quite understand why. I understand the Aeros had their difficulties with the Rivermen this season, but the worst of it came during the first two months of the season when the team was still figuring out itself and Jed Ortmeyer and Patrick O'Sullivan had yet to arrive.

This team has some incredible depth with two lines of legit goal scorers. The third line with Peters/Ortmeyer/Gillies can work the spaces and put the puck in the net, and with Kassian healthy and teamed with McMillan -- I'm guessing they'll be teamed up -- the team will have some physical guys who can make sure Patrick O'Sullivan and Robbie Earl won't have to fear for their heads.

The defense has been troublesome lately, but there have been injures and there have been a lot of guys up in the NHL. So with the addition of Spurgeon and Scandella, I think things will be much better.

Everybody seems to be worried about the match ups with Peoria. And Mike Yeo and the guys will be worrying about that as well, and how to manage them. But here's the thing, the important thing for the Aeros is their game. They need to concentrate on their game, on doing their thing. It's along the lines of what Jon DiSalvatore talked about last week. The team has to concentrate on those things that it can control. And what it can control is the way they play on the ice.

It's also like Yeo said on Sunday. Just do things the right way and things will work out.

"We’ve got guys that are going to go out and do things the right way, but I think we’ve got a great understanding of what our game is," Yeo said. "I think that we should have confidence going into game one that if we go out and play our game, then the right things are going to happen."

And the thinking has to be in line with what Jed Ortmeyer told us. It's about how the team handles itself after the game that's most important. How they recover, and how they focus. And it's that message he's preaching to the kids.

"It’s the first one to win four," he said. "You need to understand that you’re not going to win every game, and you can’t get too down on it. It’s about recovery – mentally, physically. And being ready to go for the next night. You never want to lose two in a row, so for us to instill that on these young guys and the rest of the group will help us to go a long way."

And yes, I know you're all worried about Matt Hackett. Just remember, you were all worried about Anton Khudobin two years ago, too. The guys believe in him, and he one of those guys who, if he gets in a zone and gets his confidence then he could be very very good out on the ice for a nice long run.

So my prediction? The Aeros win it in six, on home ice. But I could be wrong.

Throwing a few more articles at you...

Just a little cross promotion here if you guys don't mind:

I wrote my playoff preview for my own mothership, Pro Hockey News, so if you're interested, it's right here. Now, don't go flying off the handle when you see my prediction.

I'm generally of the opinion that predictions are pointless, particularly in a series like this where both teams are very strong in a lot of the same ways. In all honesty, I think it could go either way quite easily, so I picked Peoria to hopefully get some reverse mojo going.

But Peoria's game does honestly scare me a bit. I think the Aeros are going to have to be very patient in wearing them down and very tough and determined to win all those puck battles.

I think a lot also rides on goaltending. Ben Bishop is out with an injury and nobody's saying when he's going to be back. If he misses all or most of round 1, then I think that makes the series favor Houston. Jake Allen's a good goalie, but I don't think he's that much better than Hackett, and their backup isn't as good as Tordjman.

And in that 3 in 3 stretch next week, I'm not sure you want to play the same goalie all 3 days. That's a real grind, mentally and physically.

So yeah, I said Peoria in 6, but I'm never right about anything, so don't sweat it.

Here's a link to the Peoria side of the series preview. 

Also, here's my story at InGoal Magazine (which, if you're into goalies, is just chock full of goalie goodness every single day) on the media day skate with the Aeros coaches and a few players. That was a lot of fun and I appreciate the chance to get whiplash watching pucks fly past me into the net. :)

Lots going on today in Aero Land

Today the Aeros practiced at noon in advance of their first-round playoff series against the Peoria Rivermen.
They are 8-3 all-time against Peoria in the playoffs and have knocked the Rivermen out of the AHL playoffs the only two teams that side has qualified.

The Aeros swept as the favored team in 2006, the first time O'Sullivan was the team's best player. Then, in 2009, the Aeros upset the Manny Legace-led Rivermen in seven games.

Also today, Todd Richards was dismissed as Wild head coach. That was not a surprise at all. I don't know if Todd will get another crack at the NHL anytime soon. Likely path will have him back in the AHL, probably sooner than later.

And then here is a great read from a Houston Chronicle blogger about Matt Kassian's role as a practicing Christian off the ice. For those of you who don't know, Matt's mom, Mary, is a Christian author and motivational speaker. Matt leads a bible study for the guys that want to participate, and here is my favorite quote from the read:

"The Lord says, 'Ask and you will receive,' so there's nothing wrong with asking for a win," said Matt Kassian. "Sometimes the Lord says yes, sometimes he says later and sometimes he says no, but the Lord has his hand in everything. It's tough because you want to feel like you're in control of how things turn out."

On a personal note, that is how I feel, too. My belief as a Christian is that I am not in total control. When I realize that - like when my baby daughter has two open heart surgeries - the pressure is off for focusing on the things that I need to focus on.

(Like being a better Christian in the first place.)

But I digress.

Some Game 80 Photos

I took some photos, of course, but instead of game action, I've got some other items. For instance, here's one of the team fans with her sign, at the glass after the game.


This photo below is one of my favorites. I just wish it wasn't through the glass. But I think the whole arena could see Jed Ortmeyer's smile after this goal. We asked after the game, and he noted that this was part of a joke that he had with Patrick O'Sullivan. Primarily, whenever's he on a line with O'Sullivan, he gets a goal.


And here is Robbie Earl. I think we've written nice things about Robbie this season, but I don't think we've said enough about just how good he's been this year, and how much he's elevated his game. I can't believe some of the defensive plays -- when he stole a puck off another guy's puck -- I saw him make in the third period.


Here's number two star Chad Rau bumping fists with Chilly.


And here's the game's number one star, Warren Peters, getting his moment in the spotlight after the game.

Aeros To Face Peoria; First Game On Wednesday

Sorry, I've been handling stuff for the mothership, and booking travel, so this is a bit delayed....

The Aeros put on a rather impressive performance today, defeating the Barons 6-3 in for win number 46. That number, Mike Yeo told us after the game, was the win total the team set for themselves on the day of game number one. So well done.

Today's game was more impressive when you consider that they still have many key players in Minnesota. Key players who, according to Yeo, will be arriving in Houston in time for practice tomorrow so they can be reintegrated into the team. Returning will be Jared Spurgeon, Max Noreau, Drew Bagnall, Carson McMillan, and Colton Gillies. Marco Scandella was already here, but though he's been injured, he's been skating with the team and will be ready to go on Wednesday.

The Aeros opponent will be the Peoria Rivermen. Games one and two will be in Houston on Wednesday night and on Friday. Games three, four, and five will be in Peoria next week. And, due to building availability issues in Peoria, the Aeros will be, are you ready for this, playing a three--in-three. That seems fitting though, that the Aeros would play a three-in-three (this will be the only opening playoff series featuring a three-in-three by the way). The games will be on Monday, April 18, Tuesday, April 19, and Wednesday, April 20. Should there be a need for games six and seven, they will be in Houston Friday, April 22 and Sunday, April 24.

Yeo said the team is healthy, and that it got through today's game with no further injury concerns.

And keeping with the precedent we set when T3I got underway, we will be in Peoria for games four and five -- well, we're still waiting for the Aeros to get us the media credentials, but all of the travel and hotel stuff is set. So stick with us for continued playoff coverage.

A Brief Playoff Update (Saturday Night Edition)

As noted in the comments to the post below, Milwaukee defeated Peoria tonight. That means that the Admirals are officially the West Division's number one seed. And since they'll finish the season with the most points in the Western Conference, they'll have the home ice advantage throughout the Western Conference rounds of playoffs.

Oklahoma City meanwhile, defeated the Stars. This clinched the last remaining playoff spot in the Western Conference for the Barons. And since the Stars lost, there is no way for them to catch the Aeros in points, so the Aeros are officially the number two seed in the division, and will have the home ice advantage for the first round of the playoffs.

What is not yet known for sure, is just who it is the Aeros will be playing in the first round. Peoria's season is done. They'll finish with 92 points. Right now, they're the fourth seed, and will face Milwaukee. With one game left, Texas is in third with 92 points, and Oklahoma City is crossing over to the North Division since they're in fifth with 91 points.

If the Barons beat the Aeros tomorrow, and if the Stars lose to San Antonio, then the Barons will leap frog Texas and Peoria and become the third seed, and they will be the team that Houston faces in round one. But if Texas gets the win tomorrow, they'll be the number three seed, no matter what, and they'll face Houston. If both Texas and Oklahoma City lose, then Peoria should have the tie breaker on the Stars which makes them the number three seed, which would mean the Aeros would face the Rivermen in round one.

And if Texas loses in OT or the shootout and OKC wins, that causes a tie between those two teams. And if Texas loses in regulation and the Barons lose in the shootout, then there's a three-way tie between Peoria, Texas, and Oklahoma City, and, well, frankly, my brain hurts.

All you need to know is that the Aeros are officially the number two seed and will be hosting two playoff games next week, probably on Wednesday and Friday.