Inside the Numbers: What to Look For In Game Three

In many ways, this is going to sound like a repeat of the previous notes when it comes to the numbers versus Milwaukee. But maybe the Aeros will get this drilled into their heads and come out fighting. (Plus, I've got some Milwaukee numbers to throw in.)

The most important number is this: the Aeros need to score first. When the Aeros score first, they are 4-1 in the playoffs. And once they have that lead, they need to hang on to it because they are 3-0 for the playoffs when leading after the first period and when leading after the second period. This is important because Milwaukee is a perfect 3-0 when leading after the first period, and they are 4-0 when leading after the second. So the Aeros need to score first, and they need to hold on to the lead.

The next important number is the goals scored: the Aeros are, amazingly, 3-1 when they score two or fewer goals in the game. That means the defense is playing to its full potential and is keeping the pressure off of Anton Khudobin who's sitting in the crease. It also means the Aeros have been facing some really good goalies in Peoria's Manny Legace and Milwaukee's Drew MacIntyre.

The special team units also need to work their asses off again as the Aeros are 5-1 when they do not allow a power play goal, and they are 4-3 when they score a power play goal. The Aeros are 11-for-42 on the power play in the post season,and they have killed 45 of 50 opposition power plays. The Admirals, meanwhile, have only been able to convert on three of 22 power plays while having shut down 22 of 26 of opposition power plays.

I also thought you might be interested in knowing that the Admirals are 18-21 all-time in playoff Game Threes, and 8-11 when these games are on the road. However, since entering the AHL, the Admirals are 9-5 in Game Threes, including 5-4 on the road.

So the analysis is simple: score first; score on the power play; keep the lead, and shut down the other team's power play. If this happens, the Aeros win. It's all really elementary. And I'm pretty sure Kevin Constantine and the gang are aware of these numbers.

What these numbers don't do, however, is take us inside the human element. I wasn't allowed to watch Milwaukee's skate, but the Aeros appeared to be lose and ready to go when I watched them skating this morning -- that's more than can be said about Toyota Center which had the feel of a sauna. I hope things are improved by game time, but I can't say that I'm confident about that.

My only on record prediction is that the Aeros win this series in six. But I'll go out on a limb and say that the team that scores first tonight wins the game.

Just in case you missed it on Aeros.com

There are important things during the playoffs, like being fierce and winning games and kicking ass. Scores and stats and injuries and strategies.

And then there are beards. Go check out Scott Henninger's write-up on the history of playoff beards and progress shots of the guys and their furry chins. Never mind that some of our favorite fellas are scratches and aren't pictured, but we'll take what we can get.

They encourage you to send your favorites to online@aeros.com, so while you do that, I'll remain all impartial and stuff. But I will say, we're just a Stone's throw from game 3. I know you all would Love to see those beards get a lot longer, as that would Beaud well for a Calder Cup.

Is Kass rocking a mohawk? Badass.

And kissy face Khudobin... totally full of win. Are you guys nuts?

Welcome, Little Miss Ferraro!

Congratulations to our very own Andrew Ferraro and his lovely wife, Dana, on the arrival of a brand new baby girl this morning. For all you stats junkies, she was 7 pounds, 15 ounces. More than 19" long.

No name yet, but I'm sure they'll get inspired or just get tired of calling her "the baby" in a little while and pick something.

I keep trying to force hockey names on my friends with new kids, and fortunately for the children, nobody takes me up on it, so here's my pick: Alexandra Sidney Ferraro. Those hat tricks had to be a sign, right?

Anyway, an appropriate opportunity to use this song:

Morning Skate: Goalie Update

The early news from John, who checked out morning skate is that, essentially, Khudobin is the Aeros goalie for the long haul.

Brust's return from his fractured foot for the playoffs is doubtful, but he'd be more likely to see action than Schaefer, as he's still out with a lower body injury.

Round 2, Game 2: The Bonus Installment

Yet again here are some knock-yer-socks-off photos from our pal Chris Jerina. Can you believe he sits in the stands and takes these? Lots of one of my very favorite photo subjects, Kolanos, in this batch, looking every bit the Greek God with the flowing blond hair.

The full set is here. The teasers are here:

I call this one "That gap is MINE, bitches!" It wasn't, but man, you can see him gunning for it. Awesome.

I call this one, "Shoulda shot near side where all that net is showing, Lammers." Damn.

All photos: Chris Jerina

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Here are some quotes from Kevin Constantine that the guys over at A.S.S. rounded up for us:

"If you looked at the first five minutes you gotta give the game to them guys. They were pretty good in the first five minutes. They got a goal out of it -- it's the same thing as last night, we get a goal in the beginning and it really helps to get that first goal. I thought Milwaukee's energy was great to start that game. And we hung in there I thought for the next while, and then in the end they showed why they're the division champs and they took over the game."

Asked by some other guy if the 2nd Admirals goal was the pivotal moment of the game....

"The pivotal moment was the first five minutes and they won that...that was the first little establishing your turf. And then we hung in there enough on the road to make it 1-1 and then boom they get the 2-1 which is a real important goal too, and then took us out of it in the third."

RE: getting the split and heading home.

"What are you going to say? I'm going to say it for the eighth millionth time in hockey. The road team went and got a win on the road in the first two games, so you can't be real frustrated with that. Now you're going home and so.....blah blah."

I double checked with Ryan... he really literally said, "blah blah." Hilarious.

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Also, here are the various links to game reports:

Here's the Chronicle write-up
Here's mine for PHN
Here's Admirals Short Shifts
Here's the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal

Round 2, Game 2: Shut Down

Well... that was more like it. That kind of dominant shutting down of the Aeros offense and the blossoming of the Admirals powerful scoring is why I predicted Milwaukee in 5.

I don't blame Dimples for the loss, and while I would have liked to see him stop a couple of those that he didn't: a) it wouldn't have mattered anyway because the Aeros couldn't score and b) he did have several highlight-reel saves that could have easily put the Ads up by more than 3 by the end of things. It's a wash, in my mind. He played fine.

The real story of this game, however, was how effective the Ads were at keeping the Aeros scorers at bay. Locke had a fat goose egg for shots on goal. Kolanos only had two.

I'm not gonna go back and check this stat, but when Kolanos has more PIM than Shots on the scoresheet, that's a guaranteed loss for the Aeros. Not good.

Here's the thing: Unlike Milwaukee, most of our skilled forwards are not strong physical players who can power to the net. We have a bunch of danglers and dekers who tend to over-complicate their own paths to the net and get lots of turnovers.

The Aeros pretty well got bitch-slapped anytime they got in the slot or around the net and that kept MacIntyre's job really, really easy. I'm not sure it would take a full hand to count quality scoring chances for the Aeros.

So, the only way the boys are gonna stand up to the way the Ads are playing is to be willing to pay the price to go to the net. I saw Hrkac in the low-slot several times trying to create opportunities for his wingers and that was terrific. In fact, that's what ultimately worked on the Earl goal. The rest of the game, the slot was devoid of green sweaters.

The defensive pairing of Stoner and Rogers just got their lovely asses kicked tonight, both being on the ice for the first three Admirals goals. I know they're being paired against the best the Ads had to offer but they both need to be better.

Justin Falk, on the other hand, couldn't have been better. I know I rave about him all the time, but man, to think where he started the season, looking scared out of his mind when he had the puck, to now where he's consistently reading plays like a wily veteran and getting his stick in there, blocking shots, playing a simple but extremely effective game. It kinda blows my mind. Kid's got the goods. He and Lundbohm were the only + players on the night, and with that goal differential, I'm amazed anybody was above 0.

Pouliot's lucky he's so good on the PK or I'd have sat him by now if I were Constantine. He's incredibly unfocused and lazy with the puck. Ugly, thoughtless passes, that breakaway shot was a joke--he's got better moves than that, turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. Brutal stuff and he's back to playing in a way that, outside of the PK, is disruptive to the flow of the Aeros offensive efforts.

Meanwhile, I like Climie in goal. I'm not saying start him. I'm just saying, he's big and calm and right where he's supposed to be. Look out because he's likely the Texas Stars goalie next season. You figure he's learning the Aeros shooters like the back of his hand right now in practice, eh?

Alright, that's enough from me. Come on home, boys. Prove me wrong.

Round 2, Game #2: Aeros vs. Milwaukee -- Some Quick Thoughts

Well, was that ugly enough for ya? A 4-1 Aeros loss that wasn't as close as the score indicated. The Admirals dominated the game from start to finish, and even when the Aeros tied the game up in the second, you couldn't help but just think Milwaukee was going to come back and take the lead.

It's easy to blame Anton Khudobin for this loss. Easy but wrong. He faced 35 (KHUDOBIN FACED 28. CLIMIE GOT THE REST. AND I TOLD YOU GUYS, YOU CAN EDIT TOO, SO IF I MAKE AN ERROR LIKE THAT, GO AHEAD AND FIX IT.) shots while his counterpart, Drew MacIntyre, only had to deal with 19. The entire team failed to show up. There were a ton of stupid penalties. There was turnover after turnover.


And do you know what? The Admirals scored first. The Aeros power play was shut down. The Admirals had the first period lead. All things which indicated the Aeros would lose the game.

The one thing I would like to see change is for Kevin Constantine to get the Love/Ryznar/Kassian line going again. I know he's been trying to get some more offense. But there have been too many stupid mistakes being made, and, despite their lack of offensive ability, that line doesn't make mistakes. It provides energy, which the team was sorely lacking tonight. They provide solid defense. And they're not afraid to push the puck up the ice during the game. Constantine constantly praised this line during the season for being his most trustworthy line. And based on the team's play tonight, it's time for trustworthy and energy.

But I have to remind everybody. I said the Aeros would win this in six games, not four. They still have the home ice advantage. Things are still in their favor. I think Khudobin's play has been improving through the playoffs. I think the team was due for a down game.

And let's hope this was the one down game.

Next game is Tuesday night at 7:05 at Toyota Center.

Inside the Numbers: What to Look For In Game Two

With game time quickly approaching for tonight's game, I thought I would throw out some numbers and let you get a look inside while getting some ideas of what to watch for tonight. (Sorry, I don't have Milwaukee notes, so I can't really give you those numbers, but would if I could).

The most important number is this: when the Aeros have won the first game of a series, they've then gone on to win eight of 12 series. When the Admirals have lost game one of a series, then they're 1-2 all-time in the Calder Cup playoffs. However, the Aeros have started a Calder Cup playoff series 2-0 four times, and the team is only 5-7 all-time in Calder Cup game twos.

The keys of this game will be essentially the same keys as with Game One: score first; score on the power play; shut down Milwaukee's penalty kill; have the lead after the first period; and take the same or less number of shots than Milwaukee.

The Aeros are 4-1 in the playoffs this year when they score the game's first goal. They are 3-0 when leading after the first period; 3-0 when leading after the second, and 2-1 when tied after one. Whereas, if they're trailing after period, they're 0-2. And they are 3-0 when outshot during a game and 2-0 when shooting the same, whereas they are 0-3 in games where they outshoot the opposition.

They are 5-1 when not allowing a power play goal in a game, but 0-2 when they allow a power play goal. The Aeros have the AHL's second best power play during the playoffs, going 11-for-36 (30.6%) -- first is Wilkes-Barre/Scranton which is 9-for-21 (42.9%). And the Aeros have scored a power play goal in every game in which they've been on the power play. The Aeros completely shut down the Admirals power play on Thursday as well as virtually shutting down Milwaukee during the regular season. This could be important seeing as how the referee for tonight's game is Jeff Koharski who has never seen a ticky-tack penalty that he won't call.

Seeing as how Koharski is the ref, Kevin Constantine should be drilling into the mind of his players that, while aggressive play is okay, and penalties off of aggressive play are acceptible, penalties because of stupid or sloppy play and mental mistakes should not be allowed. The main culprits here tend to be the same players every game: Corey Locke, Benoit Pouliot, and Tomas Mojzis.

Locke tends to make up for these penalties by scoring -- he's the third in the AHL in playoff scoring with 10 points (4-6=10). It's also important for Pouliot because, while hasn't been much of an offensive force in the playoffs, he's been proving to be an excellent addition to the penalty kill unit. Another player who needs to be careful is Clayton Stoner. Stoner doesn't make a lot of stupid penalties, but he likes to hit and he likes to play aggressive, and it can be argued that he spends most of the game committing some type of hard foul.

I also find this stat interesting. As much as we complain about Anton Khudobin's play in goal, the fact is that he has allowed three or more goals in only half of the team's games. The Aeros are 3-1 when scoring two or less goals (the loss was the 2-1 Game Six loss to Peoria). So maybe he's not doing too bad after all. Though it is important to remember that, with Khudobin, he tends to be as good as his defense. If his defense has a good game, he has a good game, and vice-versa.

I'm also going to keep with the same refrain I've used in past playoff games. The key players for Houston will be Krys Kolanos, Matt Beaudoin, Clayton Stoner, and Anton Khudobin. Kolanos and Beudoin, while not having the same number of points as Locke, are both guys who seem to be driving the offense every night, and they're the only ones who seemingly seem willing to push the action every minute, every period. Stoner's been the key to the defense, and he's been playing with an intensity I have't really seen before. The better Stoner plays the better the rest of the defense seems to play, and the better the defense plays, the better Khudobin seems to play. The two things Khudobin has to try and do is cut down on his rebounds and not lose focus.

So there you go. That's inside the numbers for Game Two.

Now let's play some hockey.

On Swine Flu, Toyota Center, And The Playoffs

If you're in Houston, you know we're being besieged by Swine Flu hysteria. The Chron is basically telling us we're all about to die. Schools are closing left and right. And high school sporting events are being cancelled.

With that in mind, I contacted Jamie Spencer, the Executive Vice President of Business Operations, Houston Aeros, to see if the team has been contacted by the state or Toyota Center regarding next week's games. He sent me this link to a story in SI.com regarding the Houston Rockets and a statement from the Houston Rockets, and he further informed me that the Aeros and Toyota Center "are doing everything we can to monitor the situation and create a safe environment for fans to enjoy events this week."

In short, everything is still go, but if you're one of those types being swept up by what is possibly shaping up to be overblown hysteria, then rest assured that the team and Toyota Center are looking after your interests. And for the rest of us, it looks like, unless something drastic happens this weekend, that there will be playoff hockey in Houston next week.

Some clean-up from last night, with photos!

Woke up this morning and thought, "Wow, still can't believe they won."

Also woke up to an email from friend of T3I and local photographer, Chris Jerina, with incredible photos from the game last night. Here's the link and here are a few teasers that will embiggen if you click them:

For CC, Beaudoin

Dimples says No

KK has his fierce on... rawr!

Also, Eric over at Admirals Short Shifts was nice enough to run over to the Aeros room and get some quotes from Stoner and Constantine for us.

STONER:

Q: Obviously, this was a big win for you guys
A: We felt like we wanted to take one of these two coming into Milwaukee. We went to game 7 last series, we were a little more fresher. You know, we just finished playing. We're just trying to stick with what we do and we're lucky to get 2 points.

Q: The dust-up with Yonkman really set the tone, and you guys ended up scoring because of that.
A: I Can't say I was ready to drop the gloves there. I didn't see that coming. It worked out in our favor, we went on the 5-on-3 and I'm glad the guys capitalized.

Q: were you hoping that would happen - it looked like you didn't want a part of it.
A: No, I was in his face and he was in my face. You know, that stuff happens a lot in the playoffs. I didn't expect him to jump me like that.


CONSTANTINE

Q: How big of a win is this?
A: I thought this was the only game, I felt, that we might have to catch them rusty a little. I think their game will get better and better. I just think it's hard to play when you haven't played for a while. I was hoping we'd have a little momentum from game 7 that might have a carryover effect and they might have a little rust. I thought this was a really really key game. I think it will get harder to be honest with you from here on out because now we're a little tired and they're not rusty. So I thought that was an important game for us.

Q: You probably can't expect too many five on threes that early in the game.
A: Everybody's trying to mark their turf in the first game. We're fortunate that we came out on the power play side of that thing and getting a goal early is always important - so it really helped us.

Q: In your mind what was the difference maker tonight?
A: Probably scoring first. In all honesty I though we looked more nervous in the first than the second. To get through that nerves, you know that nervous first period with the lead I think that was really helpful. Getting through the 1st period and getting our heads into the series was the biggest thing for us.

Gotta say, the Milwaukee-area folks sure are working up the good karma on behalf of their team. Thanks Eric and Chris!!!

Check out the Ads side of things at the Ads blog. Also, here's the Chron write-up and my write-up for PHN with my all-time favorite lead.