View from the Press Box - Aeros drop Crunch at Toybox

The Aeros are either dropping like flies or picking up the OnePass miles to Minnesota, so you have to be impressed with how they have responded with all the player movement this week.

Jamie Fraser, Jeff Penner, Cody Almond, Drew Bagnall, Matt Kassian and Tyler Cuma are hurt. Warren Peters and Casey Wellman are in the NHL, and the Aeros win another game with guys like Jamie Fritsch, Pascal Morency and Joel Broda filling in.

You have to give Jim Mill credit for finding guys that can work together, and you have to give Mike Yeo credit for making this guys believe in the system. The rest of this weekend is going to be VERY tough, so getting two points against the last-place Crunch was crucial. I don't think Mill NEEDS to make a move prior to Monday's Clear Day deadline, but if he can find a way to bring a veteran forward or defenseman here for the stretch, good for him.

Friday's game was all about the Rau-Earl-Palmer line. They were fantastic, scoring two even strength goals on a night where O'Sullivan and DiSalvatore just could not bury their chances. Hopefully John will get on here later with some good quotes from Palmer, but basically the guy said he loves working with Rau and Earl and had lots of praise for DiSalvatore and O'Sullivan, too.

The standings did not change much, because two games ended up being three-point games. The Aeros and Admirals stay on top, while Texas, San Antonio and Peoria all picked up points in the middle. Chicago and Oklahoma City both lost in regulation and are falling back a bit.

There is still a lot of hockey left, but here is how things look going into another night where all seven teams are playing. Click on the image below for a closer look at the playoff picture.

What a huge difference two wins would make ...

The No. 1 question I have been getting this week is do I think the Aeros are going to make the playoffs, and what are the Aeros chances of making the playoffs? The quick answers are, after consulting with my crystal ball, "yes" and "pretty good," if Mike Yeo keeps these boys playing just as they have been for the last little while now.

The following scenario is all based on the Aeros playing out what I feel is a worst-case scenario for its last 16 games, and that is an even 8-8 record for 16 points.

If they finish any worse than that, they can still make the playoffs. But if they say, go 6-10 and miss out, I think its safe to say they probably did not deserve to make the playoffs based upon the fact that they absolutely cratered.

OK, so if the Aeros go 8-8 down the stretch, Milwaukee can go 8-11 and still finish ahead of the Aeros. The following are the records the rest of the teams in the division will need to surpass the Aeros, should the bomber boys go just 8-8:

Peoria - 11-7

Texas - 11-7

San Antonio - 11-9

OKC - 12-8

Chicago - 12-5

As you can see, even if the Aeros play it out in even fashion, which would be extremely disappointing, ALL the other teams would still have to play very good hockey to keep the Aeros out of the playoffs. Now, should the Aeros go 10-6, which is much more likely, the numbers slide even more in the Aeros' favor. For example, Milwaukee would have to go 10-9 in their last 19 games to finish ahead of the Aeros. Here is how the other teams would have to fare if the Aeros win 10 of their last 16 games:

Peoria - 13-5

Texas - 13-5

San Antonio - 13-7

OKC - 14-6

Chicago - 14-3

If the Aeros have a good weekend, starting tonight against THE worst team in the AHL, I really like their chances of avoiding a second straight Spring without extra hockey.

A few Friday morning nuggets

A few items to start your morning off right:

• Joel Broda has been recalled from Bakersfield since the Wild have called up half the Aeros roster.
• Casey Wellman, who played in lieu of Jed Ortmeyer against the NY Rangers last night, got his second NHL goal. It was real pretty, too. Clutterbuck seems to be okay though, and he's the reason Wellman was called up, so hopefully the Aeros get Orts or Wellman or Warren Peters back sooner than later. Or both would be even better but because the Wild are only allowed 4 emergency recalls after the trade deadline, my guess is they hang on to as many as they can justify without them getting rusty. 
• The good news is that they're all available to the Aeros for the playoffs, and in addition, according to Mr. Russo, the Wild technically reassigned and recalled Jared Spurgeon to ensure his eligibility for the AHL playoffs. 

So, if you don't care about the Wild but you do care about the Aeros, you need to be hoping the Wild don't make the playoffs, so the Aeros get a sweet influx of guys just when they need them most. You know, assuming the Aeros make the playoffs. *ahem*

That said, big weekend ahead where they can potentially widen that gap between 2nd and 3rd place in the division. I think Syracuse is a trap game. They're not a good team at all, they're having affiliate problems (AGAIN), and it would be easy to say, "It's just Syracuse." The sugary frosted side of me thinks the Aeros know better and adore winning so much that they'll come out and do their thing.

I think the hardest game will be Abbotsford, who can be a real pain in the ass when they want to be. Plus the end of a 3 in 3 with tired legs and a depleted roster. Ick.

See you tonight.

Wellman To Wild

And the Minnesota Wild injury-mill continues as Cal Clutterbuck isn't feeling good after a hit last night. As a result, Casey Wellman has been called up to the Wild where he joins Warren Peters and Jed Ortmeyer. The Aeros are also dealing with some injuries to Drew Bagnall and Jamie Fraser on the defensive end of things.

So, have fun this weekend.

No Tolerance for Punkasses

As often as we have pork for the press meal, I was surprised to see roast beef (albeit quite tasty) on the menu. But the Aeros cooked up a big mess of IceHog tonight in their 8-1 win. Mmm, bacon tastes good (if you're sensitive to eff bombs, don't click that link).

Per usual in a lopsided game, it got nasty later on with Wade Brookbank basically headhunting and finding a victim in Robbie Earl, who told us that he knew it was coming. He was smiling and seemed fine though. A 7 point margin of victory will do that for a guy. Here's the score sheet if you want the laundry list of penalties Brookbank racked up with that.

Anyway, I asked Coach Yeo if the team owes Hackett a steak dinner after that lousy turnover that led to the Hogs lone (shorthanded unassisted) goal and ruined Hackett's shutout.

Yeo nodded, "and I do to. At that point, it's about sending a message," referring to the goonery and headhunting the IceHogs were up to, and his decision to just keep putting the top PP guys out to make them pay for it. "If you guys want to keep doing this, we're going to try and put another on the board, too."

"I don't appreciate that and I don't think that there's any place in the game for that stuff right there, in pro hockey," Yeo said. "You've got Brookbank going after Robbie and then every time one of them comes on the ice they're trying to fight somebody else."

"Get on with it. If you want to play hard and you want to try and hit somebody, that's fine. I've got no problem with that. I...." and at this point I just have to draw you a picture because, while I think he could have continued on a mighty rampage, he could see his PR guy starting to sweat. So he just shook his head and kept his mouth shut.

To be clear, he didn't actually say "No tolerance for punkasses"... that's me taking poetic license with what his overall point was.

Anyway, solid win for the boys who have a light day tomorrow before a tough 3 in 3.

View from the Press Box - Aeros drop an eight-spot on Rockford

Now that is more like it ...

The Aeros had two days to stew over the disappointing set-back from Sunday and were just one-goal away from breaking their franchise record of eight goals in a game.

Look, let's be real; Rockford tanked after the Aeros scored that third goal. They literally stopped playing for about 30 minutes. It was good to see the Aeros climb the ladder with a franchise record six power play goals, and they got a win against a team that they probably should have beat twice.

Wednesday's game was a treat for those that braved the weeknight to attend.

Heather will have some more stuff for you later about how the team felt about Rockford resorting to cheap shots with the game out of hand.

But for now, I have to mention that the Aeros are down yet another defenseman after Jamie Fraser got hurt in this game. The AHL deadline is Monday, and if the Aeros want to make a run, they will need to add a veteran blueliner that doesn't already have a serious injury.

While I think trading Anton was the absolutely right thing to do, especially for Anton, I am disappointed that all he could fetch was a skilled forward that will never play here and an injured blueliner. In case you were wondering where Penner was tonight, he is out with an upper-body injury and it does not sound like he is close to playing.

We'll see how things look in a week to 10 days when the Wild and Aeros start to get a bit healthier, but until then, it's going to be an interesting weekend.

As for the standings, the Aeros held their own with the win. San Antonio beat Abbotsford and Milwaukee earned an OT point in Hamilton. This weekend, there will be more division games, but don't expect too much separation at this point. This season is literally going to go down to the last 10 days, and the Aeros better find a way to get a six-point cushion or more on the fourth place team.

Here is a look at the updated standings with games remaining. Please click on the image for a closer view.

Gameday - Aeros vs. Rockford

Tonight, the Aeros will play Rockford for the last time this season. Three times they have hosted them at Toyota Center, and they've lost back-to-back home games against the worst team in the Western Conference.

While I certainly do not deem tonight's game a must-win, it is pretty darn close. The race is getting tighter, and two other teams tonight are playing out-of-division games. Matt Hackett gets the call tonight, I'd think, and officially takes the reigns as the No. 1 goalie. He, too, needs a win for confidence reasons.

Also, the Aeros have played poorly at home recently. Since Feb. 13, the Aeros have played five home games. They have lost four of those games (including the one in St. Paul), and they've got 12 more at home down the stretch.

On Wednesday, Milwaukee picked up an easy win over Toronto, and Peoria beat Chicago in OT. Everybody got points, except for Texas, which lost at home to Abbotsford.

Four games in five nights starts tonight for the Aeros, and they really do need to win three of these games to keep pace as they continue to play more games than the rest of the teams in the West.

(Click on the image for a close look at the latest:)

Quick Hits: Sully, Torch, Earl, and Anton

Just a few things:

1. Patrick "Golden Ticket" O'Sullivan was named AHL Player of the Month for his stellar play in February. Well deserved honor.
2. It's quite a blow for Bakersfield but Josh Tordjman's been called up officially as of today. Also, Cody Almond is showing as having been called up yesterday. Not sure if that was some trade deadline maneuvering or if he's actually not going to be available to the Aeros tomorrow. I do know the Wild was looking to send someone to New York as an illness replacement, but I didn't think that was known until today.
3. I wrote a little piece on Robbie Earl's stepped-up efforts for theAHL.com today. He was good talking about finding his game again. I've also probably jinxed him just like I jinxed poor Palmer (dude, I seriously owe you, like, a muffin basket or pitcher of beer or something). 
4. Finally, I reciprocated a little Khudobin appetizer for our P-Bruins friends over at Something's Bruin. Check it out if you want to throw your own thoughts in the comments over there. It's probably a little bit sunshinier than I've felt about him day-to-day this season, but when I look at the big picture, I've got a very warm spot in my heart for Anton along with a lot of belief in him, and I hope he does great things and blows them all away.

Dear Aeros Fans: Why So Serious?

First off, my latest story in the mothership is posted. It's on the return of Casey Wellman and Marco Scandella to the team. Key returns, I believe, of two very skilled players who will help the Aeros immensely in that fight for a playoff spot.

I wrote this story, and filed it, before the Anton Khudobin trade, which is why I only address it at the bottom, in the miscellaneous notes column. But I want to use the post, and the Khudobin trade to address another matter: why is everybody so damn down on this team?

Yes, I've written some negative things in the past, especially after some of the losses, but frankly, I tend to be pleased with the team. The Aeros, after a bad start to the season, an awful start to the season, have regrouped to become one of the best teams in the league. Playing in what is probably the toughest division in the league, they're in second place, just a point out of first place, and they just won two out of three games in another tough three-in-three weekend that had them playing two other teams also fighting for a playoff spot.

Is it going to be easy? No. But should it be? Probably not. I think everybody was blinded by the play in January when the team could do wrong. It appears that I need to point out that, in this month just past, the Aeros went 7-4-0-1. Sure, it's not the 10-2-0-1 of January, but the rest of the teams in the league would kill for that record. And instead, we're over here discussing in comments that not only will the team not make the playoffs, but that they might drop all of the way down to seventh place.

I'm not trying to be all Mr. Sunshine here. I'm going to miss Khudobin. He was a great guy to talk to because he's still figuring out how to use his filter. But for all of you lamenting how the team is screwed because he's gone, remember this: it wasn't that long ago that Heather was writing him a "Dear Anton" letter because of his subpar play. And for all of you saying that Matt Hackett's not equipped to lead this team deep in the playoffs, I ask this: how many of you thought that Khudobin was equipped to take the Aeros deep into the playoffs two seasons ago?

The Aeros in the playoffs are not a sure thing. Not playing in this division. And I'm not trying to say otherwise. But stop looking at the trees and look at the forest. These Aeros, these Aeros we love to gripe and bitch about, have one of the best records in the league, and they have this record despite playing one of the toughest, stupidest, screwed up schedules in the league. The team has a top line of Casey Wellman/Jon DiSalvatore/Patrick O'Sullivan. And the number two line is now probably Cody Almond/Robbie Earl/Chad Rau.

The team added a good defenseman yesterday, which is probably a good thing seeing as how Drew Bagnall and Tyler Cuma are injured and that the Wild go through injuries like Carlos Lee goes through the post-game buffet in the Astros clubhouse.

So that's it for now. You may now proceed to blasting away at me. And also, if you don't mind, give the Houston Press article a read. I had to wait a really long time after Sunday's game to get quotes from Scandella, and I don't want that time wasted.

Meet Your Aeros: Jeff Penner and Mikko Lehtonen

Huge thanks to Sarah Connors of Something's Bruin for giving us the low-down on the new boys in the system. While we almost certainly won't see Lehtonen this season, the potential is there next season.

Congratulations, Aeros fans! You have just become the proud owners of two former Providence Bruins - Jeff Penner, a five-foot-ten 23-year-old offensive defenseman from Winnipeg, Manitoba, and Mikko Lehtonen, a six-foot-three, 23-year-old right wing from Espoo, Finland.

Penner shakes off a Springfield Falcon. Photo courtesy of SomethingsBruin.Net

As a Providence fan, where do I begin with these two?

Back in 2008-2009, great things were a-brewin' (har har) in Providence. It was Penner and Lehtonen's first full seasons with the team - Lehtonen was drafted 83rd overall by the Bruins in 2005 and had played four seasons in the SM-Liiga team in his hometown (the Espoo Blues) before coming to North America, and Penner had signed as an undrafted free agent in February of the year prior, after a solid season at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, where he received an honorable mention for the CCHA's 2007-08 All-Rookie team.

This wasn't your run of the mill Providence team, either - backstopped by Tuukka Rask, and including such future NHLers as Vladimir Sobotka, Johnny Boychuk, Brad Marchand, Adam McQuaid, Byron Bitz, and Matt Hunwick, the team went 43-29-0-8 into the postseason. They made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, before finally losing to the Hershey Bears, the eventual cup champs. Through this run, Lehtonen lead the team in goals scored, and was fourth in assists. Penner lead the team's defensemen in points scored, proving his offensive prowess, and scored 11 points in the postseason.

2009-2010 went differently, and although Lehtonen headed to Sweden to play for Skelleftea for the 2010-2011 season, Providence's woes remain the same - inconsistent goaltending and lack of chemistry leading to numerous losses. Although Penner's points total actually went up between 08-09 and 09-10, they've dropped off considerably this year, primarily because he doesn't have much to work with as far as the team goes.

He found some success working with Steven Kampfer as a d-pair, which was fun to watch - Penner is not a big guy at 5'10, 191 lbs, and neither is Kampfer. Somehow having two little, speedy defensemen worked, though, which unfortunately ceased when Kampfer was called up to Boston. Although he hasn't been on the scoresheet as much, he and Kampfer are tied for the team lead in plus/minus, at +10.

Lehtonen is having considerably more luck scoring this year with Skelleftea; he actually leads the entire Swedish League in goals scored, and is second overall in total points scored. Coming from Providence, and before that Espoo, he was considered somewhat of a nobody when he arrived in Sweden, but has quickly won fans over with his skill. Despite having 56 points in 52 games, he's still only managed a +4 in the plus/minus category; last year with Providence, his defense (or lack thereof) was his downfall, as he lead the team in points but also in craptacular plus/minus, at -19.

Essentially - while there's no guarantee Lehtonen will leave his good experience in the SEL behind, in Penner, you're getting a fast, small puck-moving defenseman who just needs a good partner to work with. He's good on the power play and has been used on the penalty kill as well. He's appeared in two games for Boston, both in 2009-2010. About his skill and playing ability, GM Peter Chiarelli has said that Penner "needs to continue to get stronger and play more consistently."

He's a Minnesota Twins fan, is actually himself an identical twin, and is big on community service - he earned the P-Bruins' "Man of the Year" award last year for his contributions to the community in Providence. I'm sad to see him go, but there's a glut of small puck-moving defensemen in the Bruins' system right now - here's hoping he'll get an even bigger and better role on the Houston blueline.