I'm Only Happy When It's Complicated (The Playoff Picture)

Hopefully Andrew and/or Heather will come on later with a game story -- the Aeros defeated San Antonio 5-3 -- but I've been tasked with the playoff scenario update post.  So to quote the band Garbage, "I'm only happy when it rains, I'm only happy when it's complicated."

And yes, I'm happy because it's damn complicated.

With the win tonight the Aeros record moved to 34-25-5-11 (84 points). And with the win the Aeros are in 10th place in the AHL Western Conference playoff standings. Lake Erie's in ninth, also with 84 points. But Lake Erie's season finished tonight, so they're officially eliminated.

Milwaukee, Charlotte, and Rochester all won their games tonight, which means that Peoria is now also eliminated. Oklahoma City is now officially the number one seed, Toronto is two, and Chicago will be the three seed. Abbotsford has clinched the fourth seed.

So much for the certainty.

With the win, Rochester leaped up to the fifth seed with 86 points. San Antonio, even with the loss, is in sixth with 85 points. Milwaukee's in seventh with 85 points, and Charlotte is eighth with 85 points. Lake Erie is in ninth, ahead of the Aeros due to tiebreakers, and then the Aeros in 10th with 84 points.

So can the Aeros still make the playoffs? Yes. Follow...

Step number one: the Aeros have to defeat the Stars tomorrow.

Step number two, one of the following must happen: Oklahoma City beats San Antonio in regulation, or either Milwaukee or Charlotte wins in regulation (the Admirals and Checkers are playing each other).

That would have the Aeros finishing the season with 86 points. They'd get in to the playoffs because San Antonio would finish with 85 points with a loss, and Milwaukee/Charlotte would finish with 85 points the loss. The Milwaukee/Charlotte game starts at 3:00 tomorrow, and the San Antonio/OKC game starts at 3:30, so the Aeros might have idea of their chances by the time they hit the ice for the game at 5:00. And needless to say, if both games go to OT, the Aeros are out.

But no matter what, no matter what happens, the Aeros need to win. If the Aeros don't win, it doesn't matter what happens in the other games.

And to end it, here's Garbage with "I'm Only Happy When It Rains":